NFL Week 7 survivor picks: Get-right spot for Bills at MetLife

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If you followed the advice from last week's column, you're sitting pretty heading into Week 7. The Dolphins trounced the Jets as expected, while the Patriots - our team to avoid in Week 6 - fell at home to the Broncos, taking half of your survivor pool with them.

Let's replicate that success in Week 7.

Week 7 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Author's pick: Buffalo Bills

It almost feels cheap - lazy, even - to simply pick on the Jets every week. But why mess with a good thing?

To be fair, we haven't gone against the Jets every week, also picking on the Giants, Jaguars, and Vikings. But with each passing week, it seems more and more unnecessary to look elsewhere.

This week, New York is back at MetLife Stadium to host a Bills team that hasn't done much circling the wagons lately, coming off a pair of disappointing losses to the Titans and Chiefs. While there's no shame in losing to either of those AFC contenders, head coach Sean McDermott was surely fuming after the Bills' performances in those games. He'll be all over his team this week prior to a prime get-right spot against the Jets.

Defensively, the Bills have struggled due to a couple of key absences, but cornerback Tre'Davious White returned against the Chiefs, while all signs point toward linebacker Matt Milano doing the same against the Jets. That spells trouble for a New York offense that ranks dead last in scoring, third-down conversion percentage, and red-zone touchdown success rate, and 31st in yards per play.

To make matters worse for the Jets, there's still no timetable for the returns of quarterback Sam Darnold and tackle Mekhi Becton, and the team's offensive line was dealt another blow this week with guard Alex Lewis suffering a shoulder injury. The Jets have been slightly better offensively, but there's just too much of a burden for that group to bear with the defense reaching historic levels of futility.

Adam Gase still being the head coach of the Jets digs them into an even deeper hole. This club is as good a bet as any over the last 20 years to finish 0-16, and with Joe Flacco likely under center again - though my confidence in this pick only mildly wavers should Darnold return - the Jets will fall to 0-7 on Sunday.

Avoid: Los Angeles Chargers

The Jaguars are not a good football team. In fact, the Jaguars are a pretty bad football team. Their defense lacks talent, and the offense does, too. The play-calling is suspect and the decision-making is even worse. They're the Jets' strongest competition for Trevor Lawerence.

At home, and coming off their bye, the Chargers should beat the Jaguars. They should beat them comfortably. But as Chargers fans will tell you, this team never does things the easy way.

Under head coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are merely 19-13 straight up as favorites. That means when this club is laying points and expected to win, it still loses over 40% of the time - and it's only getting worse. The Chargers are just 3-7 over their last 10 games as favorites, with four of those straight-up losses coming while favored by at least 5.5 points.

But Lynn has his squad playing well right now, with the Chargers rallying behind quarterback Justin Herbert during his strong outings. He's still a rookie, though, and that inexperience leads to a certain level of volatility. There will be growing pains this season for the young signal-caller, and you don't want to be risking it all when that happens.

Gardner Minshew has strong Ryan Fitzpatrick vibes, and he's a survivor-pool killer. Minshew has looked both impressive and awful at times this season, but no matter what, he's a fierce competitor. He already orchestrated a massive upset win over the Colts in Week 1, and nearly repeated that against the Titans in Week 2. He's earned five straight-up victories as an underdog in his short career, and this game could end with the sixth.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.