Should you bet the Jets to finish 0-16?
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The Jets are the worst team in football; that much is clear. And after their grisly six-game start to the NFL season, oddsmakers are skeptical that they'll even win a contest this year.
With Sunday's 24-0 loss to the Dolphins, New York became the first team to start 0-6 straight up and 0-6 against the spread since 2011. The Jets have been outscored by 110 points over those six games. Projected over a full season, that -293 point differential would break the record set by the winless 1976 Buccaneers (-287).
Will this New York team finish winless, too? Oddsmakers say no, but the price is alarmingly short on what would be a historically dubious feat:
| Will the New York Jets finish 0-16? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +370 |
| No | -500 |
Only two teams in NFL history - the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns - have finished 0-16. Is there value in betting the Jets to do the same?
Don't count on history
The Jets' embarrassing start to the 2020 campaign has put them in rare company through six games. In the 30 seasons before this one, 41 teams started their year with six losses. Only a half-dozen of them were also winless against the spread, and only one of those six had a worse point differential than these Jets.
A lousy start doesn't portend a winless season, though. Remember last year's Dolphins, who were outscored by 148 points through their first six games and started the year with seven straight losses? We had these same conversations about betting on a winless campaign only for Miami to win five games and finish with a winning record ATS.
It's been a similar story for most teams that start as bad as New York has. Teams with an 0-6 record average 3.0 wins by season's end, according to Football Outsiders, and those six teams that opened 0-6 SU / ATS all won at least one game and averaged 3.2 wins.
In fact, the Jets aren't even one of the 40 worst teams by DVOA (since 1985) through the first six weeks, and almost all of those squads won at least once. Football Outsiders' playoff odds report projects New York to win 3.4 games, while the team's chances of finishing 0-16 are a measly 2.2% - which means there might even be value in laying the -500 odds on the Jets to win a game.
How to bet on a winless season
If you insist on fading the Jets, though, there are better ways to do it.
First off, try betting against them on the number. Since 1989, five teams have started 0-6 against the spread with an average ATS margin as bad as New York's (-11.08). Those teams finished 21-26-3 ATS over their final 10 contests. Double-digit underdogs - which the Jets likely will be in most games this season - have also gone 44-72-5 ATS since the start of the 2016 campaign.
If you must wager on a winless season, don't tie up your money with a futures bet that only pays +370. Instead, consider a moneyline rollover, which will cost you early but pay massive dividends by the end.
The Jets' opponents have been favored by roughly a touchdown per game this season. If that continued, you'd win about $1,000 by betting $100 on their opponents' moneyline and rolling over the winnings. Even if they were double-digit underdogs every single week - as they are this week against the Bills (-13) - you'd still make around the same as you would with a +370 futures bet, with the option to "cash out" whenever you wanted.
Truthfully, neither is the most prudent bet on this Jets squad. Instead, fire away on the weekly number against them or lay the upfront juice on a win down the road. As bad as they look now, you'll be thankful at least once in the next 10 weeks.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.