Saints-Buccaneers betting trends and player props

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One of the most anticipated rematches of the season will be on center stage Sunday night, as the Buccaneers (-4.5, 50.5) aim to avenge their Week 1 loss to the Saints.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.

Betting trends

Few teams have been as disappointing for bettors this season as the Saints. They've gone 1-5 against the spread since beating the Buccaneers in Week 1, with two outright losses as favorites and four narrow finishes. In that time, Tampa Bay has gone 4-2 ATS with an average scoring margin of 13.3 points, the most by any team during that stretch.

Still, it's not all bad for New Orleans, which has covered four straight against the Bucs. The Saints have also covered 21 of 33 divisional games since 2015, including 13 of 16 in the second meeting of the season against divisional foes.

Does the revenge angle help Tampa Bay here? The Buccaneers are 6-2-1 ATS when avenging a loss from earlier in the season, while Tom Brady is 11-5 ATS in his career in that spot. The Bucs are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a Monday night game; Brady's covered 10 of his last 12 in that situation.

New Orleans has gone 7-0 to the over this year on the strength of its offense, which has scored 29.4 points per game even without Michael Thomas for six of those seven contests. Tampa Bay is 4-3 to the over and has scored 30.9 points per game, fourth-most in the NFL.

Player props

Alvin Kamara under 50.5 rushing yards (-110)

Think this number is too low? Consider that only one running back has rushed for more than 50 yards against the Buccaneers' defense this season, when Christian McCaffrey recorded 59 yards on 18 carries in a Week 2 loss. Kamara has ran the ball at least 18 times on just three occasions in his career, and he could only turn 12 carries into 16 yards in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.

Kamara is still battling a foot injury entering Sunday, which could lessen his workload and make it even more difficult to top this mark. The Buccaneers' defense has allowed 51.6 yards per game to opposing running backs as a whole; don't expect Kamara to reach that total this week.

Mike Evans receiving yards under 55.5 (-120)

Evans has been a favorite of ours this year on touchdown props, but he's done very little outside of the end zone. Tampa Bay's top receiver is averaging 46.6 receiving yards and has topped 55 just twice through eight games.

The Saints held Evans to one catch for two yards in Week 1, and he could struggle regardless of the matchup this week. Former All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore lined up against Evans 29 times in Week 1 and held him to zero receptions on two targets, per ESPN's Jenna Laine, while fellow corner Janoris Jenkins has been even more impressive than Lattimore this season.

Best bet

Buccaneers -4.5

This game was one of our best bets of the week for a reason. The Saints have been wasting bettors' money for weeks now, and the return of Thomas - whose active status doesn't mean he's fully healthy - isn't enough to close the gap between these two clubs. Expect the Bucs to fix their turnover issues from Week 1 and demonstrate why they're the best team in the NFC South.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.