Patriots-Jets betting trends and player props

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If anything can help turn things around for the Patriots (-9.5, 41), it's a meeting with the hapless Jets, who will likely be without Sam Darnold on Monday as he recovers from a shoulder injury. Still, with the way these teams are playing, it's hard to have faith in either side.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.

Betting trends

This has been a nightmarish season for the Jets - who are 0-8 straight up with seven losses against the spread - but they've been a bad bet in this spot for a while. They're 7-13 ATS at home since 2018, 3-13 ATS when getting at least 9.5 points since 2016, and 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 prime-time games, including 0-5 ATS in their last five tries.

They're even worse without Darnold. Since drafting him in 2018, New York is 2-6 ATS / 0-8 SU with an abysmal 9.8 points per game in eight contests without their young quarterback. Expected starter Joe Flacco is 3-9-1 ATS in his last 11 starts, leading his teams to 15 points per game in that span.

It's not like the Patriots have been much better. Since Cam Newton was sidelined with COVID-19 in Week 4, his team is 1-3 ATS and 3-1 to the under behind 12.2 points per game. The Jets are 5-2-1 to the under in those eight games without Darnold, while Flacco's teams are 10-2-1 to the under in his last 11 starts.

A line this high should catch under bettors' attention, too. Games involving a favorite of at least 9.5 points have gone 106-63-4 (62.7%) to the under since 2015, including 8-3-1 this season. The Patriots are 8-3-1 to the under in their last 12 when giving this many points, while the Jets are 22-9-1 to the under in their last 32 games catching at least 9.5 points.

Player props

Damien Harris over 51.5 yards (-110)

Harris was expected to be the starting back for the Patriots after an impressive offseason, and he's shown that promise since returning from injury. The second-year rusher is averaging 69.8 yards per game with two 100-yard outings and ranks sixth among RBs with 5.7 yards per carry (minimum 40 attempts).

The Jets' run defense stepped up against the Chiefs a week ago, but they'll have a tougher time against a Patriots offense built around its ground game. If New England trusts Harris with his usual workload, he shouldn't have any issue hitting the over.

Denzel Mims to score a touchdown (+400)

Mims has only played two games in his NFL career, and the rookie has led the Jets in receiving yards in both contests. He's also had his fair share of scoring opportunities - he's been targeted in the red zone twice and had an easy touchdown that Darnold simply didn't see in Week 7.

Can he get into the end zone this week? Patriots' Stephon Gilmore is expected to miss Sunday's game, while fellow corner J.C. Jackson was listed on this week's injury report, too. At these odds, Mims is a great value to take advantage of.

Best bet

Under 41

This profiles as one of the strongest under plays of the season. The Jets have the worst offense in the league, and the Patriots' offense hasn't looked much better in recent weeks. If either side does come alive, it'll likely be on the back of their rushing attack, which only helps the under.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.