NFL Week 10 best bets: Dolphins, Bengals still undervalued
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Well, that didn't go as planned. The Buccaneers' putrid effort against the Saints put a major stain on last week's 1-2 mark, bringing my record to 8-9-1 on the year. Here are my best bets for Week 10.
Eagles (-4, 44) @ Giants, 1 p.m. ET
I'm not buying what the Eagles are selling. Even with a few key players returning from injury, I'm not sold that they're fully healthy - we've already seen players return too quickly for this team only to get shelved soon after. I also don't buy that a full complement of weapons will change the way Carson Wentz plays, as his league-leading 12 interceptions have come more from bad habits than a bad supporting cast.
What I do buy is the Giants' defense, which ranks second in takeaways (15) and forced five turnovers in last week's win over Washington. New York's defense has kept games close even as its offense has faltered, mostly due to its own turnover issues. Philly has the second-worst turnover differential (-7) in the NFL, though, and that won't change just because a few skill-position players are back on the field.
The Eagles won by one point when these clubs met in Philadelphia three weeks ago, and the Giants have been a better team this year by advanced metrics. This line should be much closer to pick 'em, so give me the points all day long.
Pick: Giants +4
Chargers @ Dolphins (-2, 48), 4:05 p.m.
This line has yo-yoed throughout the week as attrition has taken its toll on both sides. First, the Dolphins placed Kyle Van Noy and Christian Wilkins on the COVID-19/reserve list, likely keeping them out for Sunday. Then, on Friday, the Chargers ruled out Joey Bosa and Justin Jackson with injuries.
Still, I loved Miami coming into the week, and I'm happy to grab this team as short chalk with the way it's played as of late. The Dolphins have won four straight against the spread behind a tenacious defense, which ranks seventh in DVOA over that stretch with five interceptions, eight forced fumbles, and two touchdowns.
This could be the toughest test of Justin Herbert's young career, which has been defined by brilliant play and disappointing results. If the Dolphins' chaotic defense rattles the rookie quarterback, the Chargers may not even have a lead to squander this time around.
Pick: Dolphins -2
Bengals @ Steelers (-7.5, 47), 4:25 p.m.
If you aren't already backing the Bengals every time they're an underdog, I'm not sure what to tell you. They're 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 as underdogs and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 as road 'dogs. They're also an NFL-best 6-1-1 ATS this year through eight games, with six of those decided by one possession.
Much of that is thanks to the play of Joe Burrow, who's coming into his own over the last few weeks and will have had two full weeks to prepare for the Steelers' defense. Compare that to Ben Roethlisberger, who narrowly avoided serious injury last week and spent this week on the COVID-19/reserve list.
Pittsburgh hasn't lost a game this year, but five of its eight victories have been decided by seven points or less, including last week's nail-biter against the lowly Cowboys. The Bengals are a better team, and they're two weeks removed from dispatching a Titans club that took the Steelers to the wire the week before. Pittsburgh should win this game, but it doesn't profile as a blowout.
Pick: Bengals +7.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.