NFL bad line of the week: Fade Chiefs in a hangover spot
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It wasn't pretty on Sunday, but our pick for bad line of the week (the Bills -5.5 over the Chargers) came through, giving us our first win in the last couple of tries.
It's back to the drawing board for Week 13. Here are the odds as well as the one spread that looks a bit fishy.
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Vikings | MIN -9.5 |
| Saints @ Falcons | NO -3 |
| Lions @ Bears | CHI -5.5 |
| Washington @ Steelers | PIT -11 |
| Colts @ Texans | IND -2.5 |
| Bengals @ Dolphins | MIA -11.5 |
| Browns @ Titans | TEN -5.5 |
| Raiders @ Jets | LV -7 |
| Giants @ Seahawks | SEA -7.5 |
| Rams @ Cardinals | LAR -3 |
| Eagles @ Packers | GB -7 |
| Patriots @ Chargers | LAC -1 |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | KC -13.5 |
| Cowboys @ Ravens | BAL -7 |
| Bills @ 49ers | BUF -2.5 |
Bad line of the week: Chiefs (-13.5 vs. Broncos)
The Chiefs cemented their spot as Super Bowl favorites in Week 12, if they hadn't already.
Kansas City stormed out to a 17-0 lead over the Buccaneers and never looked back. The Chiefs are now 10-1 coming off their biggest win of the year and appear primed to run the table.
However, I'm curious how they'll respond Sunday in a clear hangover spot.
Kansas City's defensive struggles aren't being talked about enough. The Chiefs were actually outgained on a per-play basis Sunday (7.6 to 7.5) by Tampa Bay, but yet another offensive outburst from quarterback Patrick Mahomes bailed them out.
The Chiefs currently rank No. 14 in the NFL in DVOA defense, despite playing the 23rd-toughest schedule of opposing offenses. The Broncos, meanwhile, are No. 9, though they've drawn the fifth-toughest.
There's only one way to go for a Broncos offense that just played its practice-squad wide receiver at quarterback.
Denver ranks last in the league in both DVOA pass offense and DVOA offense in general, but it's had some success on the ground (114.5 yards per game, No. 14). Look for that unit to exploit a Chiefs team that ranks 30th in DVOA rush defense.
Kansas City could have difficulty getting up for this game. Head coach Andy Reid hasn't been a great bet as a double-digit favorite during the regular season, going just 6-9-1 against the spread the last 16 tries.
The road team has covered five of the last six meetings between the two AFC West clubs, while Denver is on a 7-1 run ATS after failing to cover in the previous game.
The public's going to be all over the Chiefs after their huge win on the big stage, but the value's on the road team, especially if it hits +14.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.