Broncos-Chiefs betting trends and player props

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The Chiefs (-13.5) are once again big favorites over the Broncos after blowing out their division rival by 27 points six weeks ago. Meanwhile, Denver is a week removed from a 28-point loss to the Saints without a regular quarterback in place.

Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.

Betting trends

Kansas City has won 19 of its last 20 games with 15 wins against the spread over that span, but it's now lost three straight ATS after Sunday's narrow win over the Buccaneers. Still, the Chiefs are 9-5 ATS against teams with losing records since Patrick Mahomes made his first start against the Broncos in 2017.

Since Mahomes took over as a full-time starter in 2018, his team is 9-6-1 ATS in divisional games, including 3-1-1 ATS against the Broncos with an average scoring margin of +16.4 points. Kansas City has also covered six of its last eight games as a double-digit favorite, outscoring its opponents by 15.2 points per game in that stretch.

Conversely, Denver has lost three of its last four ATS as an underdog and is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a double-digit 'dog. The Broncos are also 6-13-2 ATS in divisional games since 2017, including 3-8 ATS in their last 11 with an 8-3 run to the under.

Player props

Tyreek Hill over 73.5 receiving yards (-112)

Am I missing something here? Over his last four games, Hill has posted receiving totals of 98, 113, 102, and 269 yards as he continues to stake his claim as the best receiver in the NFL. The last time he didn't have at least 75 yards receiving was Week 7 against the Broncos (55 yards), though he was still targeted 10 times in that game.

Hill has recorded at least 75 receiving yards in nine of his last 10 games with at least 10 targets, so chalk up that performance to a fluky result amid heavy volume. Expect Hill to get the better of the Broncos' secondary this time around.

Jerry Jeudy under 50.5 receiving yards (-110)

Don't look now, but the Chiefs' pass defense has been sneaky good this season, ranking in the top 10 in PFF's coverage grade and 13th in DVOA. If that wasn't enough, it's allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

Jeudy has had flashes of brilliance this year, but his snap share has dropped in recent weeks as he fights through a nagging ankle injury that's hampered his production. He's fallen below this number in four of his last seven and will struggle to surpass it Sunday against the Chiefs' secondary.

Best bet

Chiefs over 31 points (-115)

It's hard to know what to expect from Denver's offense after last week's quarterback debacle, but we know what we'll get from the Chiefs, who have scored at least 31 points in four of their last five and seven of their 11 games this season. The Broncos' defense rolled over last week against the Saints and will be hard-pressed to slow down the division rivals in this one.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.