NFL bad line of the week: Vikings face stiff challenge vs. Bucs
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We're currently on a streak in our picks for bad line of the week after the Broncos (+13.5) covered against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Let's shift our attention to the Week 14 board and make it three in a row.
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Rams | LAR -6.5 |
| Cardinals @ Giants | ARI -2.5 |
| Vikings @ Buccaneers | TB -6.5 |
| Texans @ Bears | HOU -1.5 |
| Titans @ Jaguars | TEN -7.5 |
| Broncos @ Panthers | CAR -4 |
| Cowboys @ Bengals | DAL -3.5 |
| Chiefs @ Dolphins | KC -7.5 |
| Colts @ Raiders | IND -2.5 |
| Jets @ Seahawks | SEA -13.5 |
| WFT @ 49ers | SF -4.5 |
| Saints @ Eagles | NO -7 |
| Packers @ Lions | GB -8 |
| Falcons @ Chargers | ATL -2.5 |
| Steelers @ Bills | PIT -1.5 |
| Ravens @ Browns | BAL -1 |
Bad line of the week: Vikings (+6.5 vs. Buccaneers)
The Vikings have been asking to get walloped.
Despite winning five of its last six games, Minnesota has failed to cover in three straight. The Vikings fell to the Cowboys as a seven-point favorite, should have lost to the Panthers the following week, and needed overtime to beat the Jaguars at home last Sunday. Those teams were 8-26 entering Week 13, but the Vikings finished with a combined plus-1 scoring margin.
The Buccaneers represent a significant step-up in competition, as they rank No. 3 in total DVOA defense, No. 2 in explosive rush rate, and No. 1 in yards per carry. There's been nothing fluky about it, either: Tampa's endured the sixth-toughest schedule against opposing offenses.
The Vikings want to feed Dalvin Cook out of the backfield and set up play-action off of it, but if they can't run, they'll become one-dimensional. If the Buccaneers can turn this into Kirk Cousins versus Tom Brady, there isn't much more that needs to be said about Tampa Bay's advantage.
The Buccaneers are No. 6 in DVOA offense and have no shortage of weapons to test the Vikings' young defense. It'll be the best unit that Minnesota's faced since Week 8 (Packers, No. 2 in DVOA offense). Minnesota's allowed an average of 30 points in five games against current top-10 DVOA offenses this season.
Tampa Bay has lost two straight, but this is a cheap buy on a legitimate contender. The Bucaneers have also been perfect in the bounce-back role in 2020, covering all four games following a loss.
This should be a convincing win for Brady and the Bucs. Lay the chalk.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.