NFL Week 14 survivor picks: Perfect bounce-back spot for Seattle

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Each of my top-four picks in Week 13 came out as winners - I distinctly said to avoid the Steelers, and that the Giants will give the Seahawks a run for their money.

If you're still alive in your survivor pool, you can almost taste the money. Here's how to survive Week 14.

Week 14 confidence ranking

Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. New York Jets)

How much needs to be said about this game? Seattle hit a blip last week against a fiercely competitive Giants team, but Pete Carroll rarely loses two consecutive games at home. The Seahawks are 4-1 in Seattle coming off a home loss in their previous game, and they're both 3-0 straight up and against the spread when favored in that spot, including 16- and 18-point victories as 14- and 12.5-point favorites, respectively.

Seattle's defense has been progressing nicely, and while the offense has hit an unexpected rough patch, this is as good a get-right game as there is for Russell Wilson and Co. The Jets are giving up 31.2 points and 386.2 yards per game on the road this season while managing just 12.2 and 258 on offense. This game won't be particularly competitive.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

If this spread feels too big for a game featuring a pair of wild-card hopefuls, it isn't. It's fair to say Tom Brady has enjoyed better days, but many of his struggles this season can be attributed to his miserable play when under pressure. He's got a completion percentage of just 45.1 when his pocket collapses, a QB rating of 49, and has more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (three).

Those numbers jump to a 70.9 completion percentage, 109 QB rating, with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions when kept clean in the pocket. There will be a lot of that Sunday against a Vikings team whose sack leader was traded away weeks ago. Minnesota's pass rush grades as a bottom-three unit in the NFL, and with two weeks to prepare for this game, coming off a pair of losses, the Buccaneers are primed to bounce back in Week 14.

3. Tennessee Titans (@ Jacksonville Jaguars)

Full credit to the Jaguars for continuing to compete, but this is a tough spot for them coming off an emotional defeat in Minnesota. They left it all out on the field in a game that lasted nearly four hours but return home empty-handed to face an angry Titans team that was just steamrolled.

Mike Vrabel is way too good of a coach not to elicit a strong response from his team in this game, which carries massive playoff and seeding implications. The Titans simply have too much firepower on offense for a Jaguars defense lacking in talent and experience. Just once this season has Tennessee faced a defense that ranks in the bottom seven in the NFL - as Jacksonville does - and put up 42 points in that contest. Mike Glennon can't keep up with that.

4. New Orleans Saints (@ Philadelphia Eagles)

Can Jalen Hurts spark the Eagles' offense? Sure. Can Hurts fix the Eagles? Absolutely not. This is a brutal first test for the rookie against a Saints defense playing as well as any unit in the NFL right now. New Orleans has allowed just two touchdowns in the last five weeks and is giving up just 8.8 points per game over that span. There just doesn't seem to be a world in which the Eagles get right in this spot.

5. Los Angeles Rams (vs. New England Patriots)

At one point this season, the Patriots were 2-5 and trailing the Jets by 10 points in the fourth quarter on Monday Night Football. They've managed quite the turnaround since then, but the competition hasn't exactly been stout. This is a big step up in class against the Rams. Los Angeles' defense will make life miserable for Cam Newton, while the offense won't find much resistance against a Patriots defense that's below average in all three phases.

6. Green Bay Packers (@ Detroit Lions)

Last week I took to just about every platform to preach the "bet on the team that just fired their coach" theory, and the Lions took that theory to 3-0 on the season with an outright win against the Bears. Of course, firing your coach doesn't solve everything. Both the Texans and Falcons lost their second games after firing their coaches, and the Lions are likely in for a similar fate. Even with Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift potentially returning, neither have played in weeks, and the Detroit defense just isn't equipped to handle the threat of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones.

7. Carolina Panthers (vs. Denver Broncos)

As we get more clarity about the Panthers' COVID situation later in the week, I'd definitely consider pushing this game higher up. As of now, eight players have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, many of whom can be cleared before Sunday. Carolina also welcomes back Christian McCaffrey, while the Broncos will be without corner A.J. Bouye, who was hit with a suspension. The Panthers are too well-coached under Matt Rhule to fade against a shorthanded Denver defense.

8. Atlanta Falcons (@ Los Angeles Chargers)

The Falcons are 4-3 since firing Dan Quinn and should probably be 5-2 if not for a stunning mishap against the Lions. Two of those losses came against the Saints. Defensively, Raheem Morris has figured things out, while Matt Ryan has been successful with a full complement of weapons, which he'll have here. The Chargers have fully quit on Anthony Lynn, and unless he's fired midweek, there's no changing my pick here.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (@ Miami Dolphins)

A team as well-coached as the Dolphins has a chance to win every week. Brian Flores' defense has the horses to contain Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, while the offense can find success if Chan Gailey opens things up as he did in the second half of Week 13.

10. Indianapolis Colts (@ Las Vegas Raiders)

The Colts are more efficient on offense, have a much stinger defense, and hold the head coaching advantage. Sometimes it's really that simple.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.