NFL Week 14 best bets: Bucs, Jaguars undervalued after recent losses
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Nothing feels better than perfect predictions, which we enjoyed after sweeping the best bets in Week 13 to bring my record to 5-1 against the spread over the last two weeks. Here are my best bets for this week.
Titans (-7.5, 52.5) @ Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
Sometimes the number dictates everything, and that's the case with this game. Yes, the Titans are clearly the better team, and they'll blow this contest open if they exploit the Jaguars' suspect run defense. Yet Jacksonville is one of the few teams to hold Derrick Henry under 100 yards this year, and it simply has a knack for sticking around in games that it shouldn't.
Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars have lost four of their five games by a combined 11 points against the Texans, Packers, Browns, and Vikings. Much like the Titans, those latter three all boast top-10 rushing offenses, yet Jacksonville stayed within the number in each of those matchups. The Jaguars also nearly upset Tennessee back in Week 2 in a 33-30 loss as a 7-point underdog.
Of the Titans' eight wins this year, only two came by more than seven points. This has "trap game" written all over it, and even if Tennessee avoids the stumbling block, expect the final score to be close.
Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Vikings @ Buccaneers (-6.5, 52.5), 1 p.m.
The Buccaneers clearly haven't played their best football as of late with three losses in their last four games, but you have to consider the competition. Tampa Bay's three losses came against the Saints, Rams, and Chiefs - all rank in the top six in DVOA and PFF.
Against all other teams this season, the Bucs are 5-2-1 ATS with an average scoring margin of plus-14.5 points, and six of their seven wins this year have come by at least seven points. They're also 3-1-1 ATS against teams without a winning record, beating them by an average of 12.8 points per game.
The Vikings' best chance of pulling off the upset - or even keeping it close - is a potent rushing attack led by Dalvin Cook. That'll be a tough ask against Tampa Bay's top-ranked rush defense, which has allowed just two teams to run for 100 yards total in a game this year. This isn't a spot to short the Bucs.
Pick: Buccaneers -6.5
Washington @ 49ers (-3.5, 43.5), 4:25 p.m.
This line suggests two things about the 49ers, neither of which is true. For one, it implies San Francisco is clearly a superior team to Washington. That's a tough sell, given how these teams have played over the back half of the season. The line also seems to value home-field advantage for the Niners, which is flimsy at best considering the team is playing in Arizona with no fans.
Washington has played like a top-half team over its 5-1-1 ATS run, and its elite defense should create trouble for Nick Mullens, who is a dramatically different quarterback with and without pressure. Alex Smith has been the steadying force for this Washington offense, and he has enough support defensively to pull off the upset against the team that drafted him.
Pick: Washington +3.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.