Week 14 player prop bets: Russ will cook vs. lowly Jets
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We split our four props in Week 13, but we were close to sweeping the card. Allen Robinson and Corey Davis effortlessly cashed their receiving totals, while Tyler Lockett and Nelson Agholor came up 1.5 and 4.5 yards short of their props, respectively.
Let's keep the good times rolling in Week 14. Here are the prop bets we like this weekend.
Russell Wilson over 284.5 passing yards
Wilson could use a big game. The Seahawks had absolutely no answer for the Giants last week, but thankfully, the Jets' defense is in a completely different tier.
The Jets currently own the league's worst DVOA pass defense, which could be the perfect remedy for Wilson after he completed just 62.8% of his passes for one interception and a season-low 31.8 quarterback rating against the Giants.
Adam Gase's team has given up 381, 257, and 366 passing yards over its last three games, surrendering eight total touchdowns to just one pick.
The Seahawks would be wise to let Russ cook.
Keenan Allen over 72.5 receiving yards
The Falcons' defense is a unit on the rise, allowing 19.6 points per game in its last six games after giving up an average of 30.6 over the first five.
But the quality of competition is concerning.
Atlanta has twice faced the Saints with Taysom Hill at quarterback over its recent surge, along with the Lions, Broncos, Panthers, and Vikings. Only one of those teams - Carolina - ranks better than the Chargers in DVOA pass offense, so L.A. is a breakout candidate - especially after getting blanked in Week 13.
The market is expecting around seven touchdowns, and both these teams tend to get volatile. If this one gets wild, Allen might break the stat sheet.
The veteran receiver ranks No. 1 in the league in targets, seeing double digits in six of the last seven. In four games against units ranked 20th or worse in DVOA pass defense, Allen has compiled 44 catches for 342 yards; the Falcons are No. 19 in that metric.
Adam Thielen under 74.5 receiving yards
Thielen is on a bit of a heater. He's had at least 75 yards in back-to-back outings after behind held under that number in four straight.
But those two tilts were against the Jaguars and Cowboys. The Buccaneers are a different beast, ranking fourth in yards per completion allowed and eighth in DVOA pass defense.
Fading a receiver who sees a ton of volume can be a headache, but Thielen is facing one of his toughest matchups of the year. Go under.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.