Chargers-Raiders best bets: Can Las Vegas slow down Ekeler?
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We've been on fire with our roundtable best bets, going 11-2 since the Ravens' Tuesday night win over the Cowboys in Week 13.
Here's how we're betting Thursday's AFC West clash between the Raiders (-3) and Chargers.
Alex Kolodziej
Under 53.5
Oddsmakers overshot this one, as the Chargers’ offense isn't being docked enough. Justin Herbert burst onto the scene early, but L.A. is trending down while ranking just No. 18 in the league in DVOA offense.
Do I like betting on the Raiders’ defense to do well? No, I do not. But that unit has endured one of the tougher schedules of opposing offenses this year, including games against the Colts, Falcons, and Chiefs recently. This contest looks like a fun, wide-open game on paper, but the number here is awfully high.
Alex Moretto
Austin Ekeler over 57.5 rushing yards
Someone care to explain this number to me? It feels like I’m missing something. If the number is a result of Ekeler's questionable tag, it's a gift. He's nursing a thigh bruise, but I'm not concerned.
The Raiders' run defense is getting demolished this season, and that’s been especially true of late. Yes, the team fired its defensive coordinator after Colts running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines ripped off 211 yards on 28 carries, but the Raiders aren't solving their issues overnight. This is a club that resurrected Kalen Ballage's career in its first meeting with the Chargers this campaign.
Now the Raiders are facing Ekeler, who’s been getting the bulk of the Chargers' backfield work since returning from the injured reserve a few weeks ago. Los Angeles loves to run the ball, and the Chargers always seem to play tight games, so Ekeler's absolute floor is likely 13 carries.
The Raiders have allowed 6.1 yards per carry over the last three weeks to running backs while facing Ty Johnson, Josh Adams, Brian Hill, and Ito Smith. Even if we drop that to a very conservative five yards per carry for Ekeler, he'll finish with 65 yards.
He'll get more carries, though, and he'll average more yards. I’m all-in here.
C Jackson Cowart
Ekeler over 40.5 receiving yards
I'm also all-in on the Chargers' lead back, but I'm betting him to gash the Raiders in a different way.
Since returning from the IR in Week 12, Ekeler has averaged 61.3 receiving yards on eight catches per game. Excluding Week 4, when he played just three snaps before leaving with an injury, he's logged 55-plus receiving yards in four of his last five games. Ekeler has also topped 40.5 yards in 10 of his last 12 contests, averaging 63.3 yards over that stretch.
This number would only make sense if the Raiders were stout against running backs. That, of course, isn't the case in any way. Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to opposing backs at 42.8, which is higher than this prop total. Unless Moretto and I are missing the same thing, Ekeler should produce a big evening all around.