NFL win totals update: 7 bets undecided heading into Week 16
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Somehow, this wacky NFL season is almost over - and unlike in the NBA and NHL last year, your win totals bets will most likely come to a conclusion, too. Which ones have already been decided? And which do you need to sweat out over the final two weeks?
A year ago, the final two weeks determined the fate of 10 team win totals. In 2020, only seven bets are still in flux heading into Week 16. However, five could still go either way, making for an intriguing end to the campaign.
We've tracked all 32 preseason win totals so you know which ones to cash, watch, or sweat heading into Week 16, with some notes on a few interesting teams:
Cash it
Over
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL | RECORD |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | 13-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.5 | 10-4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 | 11-3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 11-3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 9 | 10-4 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8.5 | 11-3 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | 10-4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8.5 | 10-4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8.5 | 9-5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 8-6 |
| Miami Dolphins | 6.5 | 9-5 |
| Washington Football Team | 5 | 6-8 |
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)
The Chiefs began the season tied for the highest win total and didn't disappoint, winning 12-plus games for the third straight year and reaching 13 victories for the first time since 2003. All of us probably should have seen this coming.
Buffalo Bills (8.5)
I entered the year shouting from the mountaintops about the Bills, who still hold an outside shot at the AFC's No. 1 seed after a four-game winning streak. That probably won't happen, but we're happy to settle for an over that cashes in the first week of December.
Miami Dolphins (6.5)
The biggest surprise of the year is easily the Dolphins, who are tied with the Bills for the largest gap between win total and current wins. Miami is the only team with a winning record that began the year with a win total below eight, which speaks volumes about the job Brian Flores has done over his first two years as head coach.
Under
| Team | Win Total | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | 9-5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | 5-9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | 5-9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | 4-9-1 |
| New England Patriots | 9 | 6-8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | 6-8 |
| Denver Broncos | 7.5 | 5-9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5 | 5-9 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | 4-10 |
| Houston Texans | 7.5 | 4-10 |
| New York Jets | 6.5 | 1-13 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5 | 3-10-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 1-13 |
Baltimore Ravens (11.5)
One team was bound to experience the season from hell amid the pandemic, and that team is the Ravens, whose schedule was uprooted halfway through the year due to a COVID-19 outbreak. Even so, they'd lost three of their last four games before that point, so this total was always doomed to go under.
Dallas Cowboys (9.5)
Three other teams have undershot a win total more than the Cowboys, but none of those outcomes feel as disappointing relative to what we expected from Dallas this year. Dak Prescott's injury was a devastating blow, but the 'Boys were already 1-3 at that point with one of the worst defenses in recent memory. Do we owe Jason Garrett an apology?
New York Jets (6.5)
Debating whether this would go over or under feels a little silly in retrospect, doesn't it? I went back and forth prior to the year before settling on the over, and the Jets then became one of the worst teams we've ever seen. Even Jets fans can't enjoy their misery after New York squandered its tank job with last week's win. Classic Jets.
Watch it
| Team | Win Total | Record |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 10.5 | 10-4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 | 9-5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 7-7 |
| Detroit Lions | 6.5 | 5-9 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5.5 | 4-10 |
New Orleans Saints (10.5)
The Saints will be big favorites in each of their final two games, and they need to win both to maintain a chance at securing the No. 1 seed. But if they lose this week to the Vikings, there's a possibility New Orleans will have clinched the division with no shot at the top seed, leading to a chance the team could rest its starters. Don't count on it, though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9)
If you bet the Buccaneers' over, you've already got a push in your back pocket, with easily winnable games remaining against the Lions and Falcons. This is as good as it gets without being graded.
Las Vegas Raiders (7)
The overtime loss last week to the Chargers could loom large for those who bet this Raiders total. Las Vegas is an underdog this week against the Dolphins and could be playing for nothing in Week 17.
Detroit Lions (6.5)
This bet isn't final, but it may as well be with the Lions catching more than a touchdown this week against the Buccaneers. If they survive that, a date with the Vikings awaits in the season finale.
Carolina Panthers (5.5)
The Panthers looked well on their way to hitting this over after a 3-2 start, but a subsequent five-game losing streak has put Carolina bettors in a tough position entering Week 16. This team could upset Washington and catch the Saints in a favorable Week 17 spot, but that's still a long shot.
Sweat it
| Team | Win Total | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 8 | 7-7 |
| New York Giants | 6 | 5-9 |
Chicago Bears (8)
This is incredibly tight down the stretch. The Bears are massive favorites this week over the Jaguars - who now hold the tiebreaker for the No. 1 pick in April - but they face the Packers in Week 17. Will Green Bay be playing for anything? And will something be motivating Chicago? Buckle up.
New York Giants (6)
It feels like the Giants have lived through three different seasons this year - the 1-7 start, the four-game win streak, and now a two-game skid that has left over bettors hoping for a miracle this week against the Ravens. If the Giants win, though, a juicy matchup against the Cowboys awaits.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.