How Rivers pulled it together to get the Colts back on course

Five games into the season, the Indianapolis Colts were somewhat out of sorts. Upon closer inspection, however, they were more or less the team they were expected to be.

At 3-2, the Colts were coming off a loss at Cleveland. They possessed the league's most efficient defense - both against the pass and overall - and their special teams ranked second in DVOA. But the Colts also lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who still haven't beaten anyone else. There was already talk at that point of possibly benching newly acquired veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, who had thrown more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four) through his first five games, continuing a turnover-heavy trend that had marked his final season last year with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Colts head coach Frank Reich opted to stick with Rivers, who would turn 39 in early December, rather than go back to last season's starter, Jacoby Brissett. It proved to be the right move. The Colts (10-4) have won seven of their last nine, and they're tied with the Tennessee Titans for first place in the AFC South. They're also well placed in the conference's wild-card chase.

Indianapolis put together a championship-caliber roster in 2019 before Andrew Luck's shocking retirement. These Colts aren't particularly exceptional in any one phase, but they're solid at just about everything. Now, thanks to Rivers, it might be enough to contend for a Super Bowl.

The Colts' defense has regressed a bit over its last nine games, falling from first in DVOA (minus-24.8%) to sixth (minus-11.8%) and from first in expected points added per play (minus-0.106) to ninth (0.004), according to Ben Baldwin's database. For the season, Indy's defense ranks 10th in pressure rate (24.7%) despite blitzing just 17.6% of the time - the second-lowest total in the league. The Colts have forced 24 turnovers - good for third-most - including seven in the last three games and 11 in their last five.

Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has evolved Indy's defense from a Cover 2 (think two deep safeties) to more of a Cover 3 match, which is a zone that develops based on a pass-catcher's patterns. This transition has helped the Colts do a better job of disguising exactly what kind of coverage the defense is playing. It's also helped them thrive despite the season-ending Achilles injury to safety Malik Hooker in Week 2.

ESPN's Dan Orlovsky recently explained how the Colts disguised their coverage and an inside blitz in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers, a game in which Indy's defense limited Green Bay to a field goal on six possessions after halftime:

The Colts eventually won that game when Julian Blackmon forced a fumble in overtime. They've also beaten the Houston Texans twice in the last three weeks by forcing turnovers in the waning minutes.

Linebackers Bobby Okereke, Anthony Walker, and Darius Leonard are all ranked inside the top 15 in coverage snaps per reception (S/REC), per PFF. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only other team with more than one linebacker in the top 15. Among safeties, Blackmon ranks third in S/REC. Kenny Moore, whom the Colts made the league's highest-paid slot cornerback, has four interceptions and 11 passes defended. Up front, defensive end Justin Houston ranks seventh among edge rushers in pass-block win rate. And DeForest Buckner, a former No. 7 pick acquired in an offseason trade, leads the team with 7.5 sacks.

On offense, the Colts boast a line that's ranked ninth in pass-block win rate and 10th in run-block win rate. Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, a second-round pick, is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but he's only 25th in DYAR and rushing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and just 0.34 yards over expectation per attempt, per Next Gen Stats.

Then there's Rivers. His reduced arm strength was apparent with the Chargers in recent years, but he now mostly attacks the short and intermediate parts of the field. Since Week 6, he's done everything quite well.

Just compare Rivers' first five games to what he's done in his last nine:

Rivers ranks fifth among quarterbacks in EPA/play since Week 6, per Baldwin's database. For the season, according to PFF, Rivers has a passer rating of 85.9 when pressured, which is the fourth-best in the league. And even though he's attempted the lowest percentage of deep throws this season among qualified QBs (8.8%), he's posted a passer rating of 97.3 when he does sling it deep, which ranks 11th. "By just about every metric, Rivers has been a top-10 quarterback," The Ringer's Danny Kelly wrote of Rivers' last nine games.

His deep shot to T.Y. Hilton on second-and-20 late in Sunday's win over the Texans was absolutely perfect, and he completed what became the game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Zach Pascal two plays later:

Rivers signed a one-year, $25-million deal to join the Colts. Given his age, it was a hedge that indicated neither side was willing to commit to anything further. Reich said last week that based on how Rivers has been playing, he still has "multiple years" left in him. That remains to be seen.

In the here and now, Rivers and the Colts have to travel to Pittsburgh to face the reeling Steelers, followed by a home finale against the Jaguars, with the possibility of a playoff run after that.

Rivers has steadied the Colts in 2020 and put them back on the trajectory they hoped to be on with Luck.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.