Week 16: The Steelers on the brink

A rundown of the best games and most interesting trends for Week 16 of the NFL. All times Eastern.

What the hell happened?

Colts (10-4) at Steelers (11-3), 1 p.m.

Has it really been less than three weeks since Pittsburgh was 11-0 with decent Super Bowl odds? Because the Steelers have not only lost three in a row, they appear headed for the abyss. Forget the Super Bowl; this looks like a team that's not even going to win its division. And please try not to stare at its 2021 roster and salary-cap situation. It might give you a headache.

The most shocking development of Pittsburgh's skid is that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suddenly looks like Willie Mays stumbling around center field in a Mets uniform. The Steelers weren't always consistent as they skated by a bunch of crummy teams for the first 70% of the season, but Roethlisberger at least looked competent and capable of ginning up the old magic to make enough downfield throws to build a lead against the Tennessee Titans, or to quickly erase a fourth-quarter deficit against the overmatched Dallas Cowboys. Now it's cringeworthy to watch him try to toss the ball past the line of scrimmage. Get a load of this from Chase Stuart on Twitter:

The goal of an offense should be to avoid getting to third down. Which offenses are the best at that? Here is how many 1st/2nd down plays each offense has relative to how many 3rd down plays. Steelers note: you do not want to be behind the Jets in any category

It doesn't help that the Steelers' offensive line is an infirmary ward, that left tackle Alejandro Villanueva and right guard David DeCastro look washed, or that they'd plum run out of inside linebackers in recent weeks (though Vince Williams is expected to be back for this one). But the dropped passes that had become such a problem of late didn't happen in Monday night's loss at the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers just stunk.

If there's a potential way out, it's trying something more imaginative on offense than having Roethlisberger fire off quick, short passes against defenses that have no reason to fear a pump fake or a double move. Motion? Play-action? Lining up with heavy sets or other run looks to set up a pass? That kind of stuff might help. But it's getting late to find a fix.

The Browns (10-4) are one game back with two to play and the two teams meet in Cleveland to finish the season next week. Also, Roethlisberger turns 39 next year with $19 million in cash coming his way if he's still on the roster in March, along with a $41-million cap hit crashing onto the books for 2021. The Steelers could reduce that cap hit by cutting him, but then they'd be without a quarterback while also swallowing a $22-million cap charge for a QB no longer on the roster. They also have a boatload of players set to hit free agency when the cap is expected to drop prodigiously because of the pandemic's effect on revenues. Other than that, everything's fine.

Meanwhile, the Colts are pretty damn good.

Close one

Rams (9-5) at Seahawks (10-4), 4:25 p.m.

If you're wondering how on earth the Rams managed to lose to the previously winless Jets last week, consider Jared Goff. Head coach Sean McVay has done such a masterful job of scheming up easy throws for the quarterback that it's easy to overlook the fact that Goff is bad when pressured, or pretty much whenever an opposing defense takes away his first read.

Seven of Goff's 12 interceptions this season came in the Rams' five losses, and he's thrown 28 picks in his last 30 games. On the other side of the field, Russell Wilson has cooled off considerably since his MVP start: His 13 picks are tied for second-most in the league, trailing only the now-benched Carson Wentz. Wilson's interception rate of 2.65% is also worse than Goff's 2.36%.

Still, the Rams' defense and Wilson's ability to create big plays are why these teams are on solid playoff ground. They're also quite evenly matched with nearly identical point differentials (plus-76 for Seattle, plus-74 for L.A.). A lot is riding on this one in terms of postseason positioning, and it could honestly go either way.

Fireworks expected

Titans (10-4) at Packers (11-3), 8:20 p.m.

Hey, look, it's two of the league's best offenses in prime time. Per Football Outsiders, Green Bay is No. 2 in offensive DVOA, while Tennessee is No. 3. And Ben Baldwin's database has the Titans at No. 1 in EPA/play, with the Pack at No. 2. On the other side of the ball? Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA. Translation: Points will be scored.

This guy

Dolphins (9-5) at Raiders (7-7), Saturday, 8:15 p.m.

Las Vegas' pursuit of a playoff spot is still alive, but it will need to win out against Miami and Denver plus have the Dolphins lose next week at Buffalo and have Baltimore lose to both the Giants and Cincinnati. Fingers crossed, Raiders fans. I guess.

Miami's defense is sixth in weighted DVOA, which factors in how the Dolphins have been playing lately, in addition to ranking first in points allowed per game (18.4) and third-down efficiency (32.5). That doesn't seem to bode well for Raiders coach Jon Gruden, whose only win this month came when Gregg Williams trolled his own team. It may not matter whether Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota plays - the Raiders are 4-9 in December under Gruden since 2018.

Really?

Bears (7-7) at Jaguars (1-13), 1 p.m.

After everything that's happened, the Chicago Bears are just one game back of the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC's final wild-card spot. Leave it to the Bears to get just enough seemingly decent production out of Mitchell Trubisky to possibly save head coach Matt Nagy's job, while also maybe convincing the front office to bring Trubisky back on a mid-level deal.

The Jags have lost 13 straight. There's no way the Bears are going to lose to them ... until one considers that Jacksonville absolutely has the ability to out-inept the New York Jets by winning and coughing up the possibility of drafting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Remember: Players and coaches don't tank, but fans will hold it against them if they don't at least try really, really hard to lose games they get paid to win. The point? One of these teams is likely going to disappoint its own fan base by winning this game.

Ba dum tss!

Panthers (4-10) at Washington (6-8), 1 p.m.

Carolina leads the league in losses that garner respect. Washington is in first place. The fact that this game overshadows the Eagles-Cowboys matchup that will be played in the late-afternoon national TV window is your NFC East joke of the week. Don't forget to tip your bartender.

Just saying

Bills (11-3) at Patriots (6-8), Monday, 8:15 p.m.

You're telling me Buffalo heads into Foxboro one week after clinching its first AFC East title in a generation, which happened the day before the Patriots were eliminated from qualifying for the playoffs for the second time in this century? Just spitballing here, but Monday night's probably going to feel a little like a second Christmas for Bills fans.

Both teams have been trending this way for a while, but the Pats were the division's puppet master for so long that their respective realities still seem weird. To borrow a phrase we're all completely sick and tired of at this point, just accept the new normal.

Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.