Vikings-Saints best bets: Can New Orleans finally beat Minnesota?
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The NFL is offering up a Christmas special this year, giving us the chance to try and double that envelope of cash from grandma.
Here's how we're betting Vikings-Saints on Friday night.
Alex Kolodziej
Under 50.5
Both the Vikings and Saints went over the total last week, but this has under written all over it.
I don't trust Minnesota's Kirk Cousins against New Orleans' defense, which currently ranks No. 2 in DVOA rush defense and No. 3 in DVOA pass. The Saints just had their toughest matchup of the year against the Chiefs but now face a unit outside the top 10 of DVOA offense. The Vikings have given defenses fits this year, but this is a serious drop-off in speed and scheme from the Chiefs.
I'd expect New Orleans to lean on the ground game, as it has all year. The Vikings have had problems stopping the run, ranking No. 20 in DVOA rush.
Keep the clock running and give the scoreboard operator an easy day, please.
Alex Moretto
Alvin Kamara over 45.5 receiving yards (-115)
We stayed hot on MNF, hitting with the Bengals +14.5 and Chase Claypool over 39.5 receiving yards. Let's turn that into more money on Christmas.
The Vikings remain incredibly thin on defense with Eric Kendricks sidelined, joining a long list of stars already on injured reserve. Kendricks is such an integral part of everything Mike Zimmer does on defense, and his athleticism is crucial; without him, they have no one to match up against the ever-dangerous Alvin Kamara out of the backfield.
Expect Kamara to be the security blanket here with Michael Thomas injured. Drew Brees really struggled last week, so I'd anticipate the Saints will scheme the ball into the hands of their most effective playmaker, looking to get Kamara into space to do some damage.
And without Kendricks on the field, the Vikings won't have much success stopping him.
C Jackson Cowart
Adam Thielen to score a touchdown (+150)
Lost in the brilliance of Justin Jefferson's stellar rookie season is the quietly stout play of Adam Thielen, who has already set a career high in receiving touchdowns (13) and ranks third in the NFL in that department. He's only been shut out in four of 13 games this year and has scored seven times in the last five games, including at least once in four of those five.
As strong as the Saints' run defense has been, it's been leaky to receivers, allowing the sixth-most touchdowns to opposing receivers (16) through 14 games. If the Vikings want to keep Friday's game close, they'll need Thielen to have that same nose for the end zone against a vulnerable defense, making this an easy bet to target. The plus-money is merely a bonus.