NFL Week 16 Pros vs. Joes: Sharps targeting Chiefs, Eagles as chalk
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Before you make your NFL bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing this week's slate.
Falcons @ Chiefs (-11, 53.5), 1 p.m. ET
A week ago, bettors were all over the Saints in a game New Orleans eventually pushed against the Chiefs. This week, they've flipped their support to Kansas City in a massive chalk spot vs. the Falcons.
The Chiefs opened as 10-point favorites early in the week before a couple of limit plays brought the line straight to 11, where it sits as of Saturday afternoon. Kansas City entered the weekend drawing twice as many tickets as Atlanta with 45 times as much money wagered. Bettors are even playing the Chiefs on the moneyline, too, despite the narrow return on investment.
"It looks like it’s gonna be one of the bigger parlayed games, as well," Rood said.
Panthers @ Washington (-1, 42.5), 4:05 p.m.
The Panthers are another popular sharp play this week. Carolina opened as a 2.5-point underdog and has seen a barrage of money move that line close to a pick 'em as the game approaches.
Washington had actually seen three times as many tickets as Carolina entering the weekend, but an 18-to-1 advantage in money wagered - thanks to at least one limit play at +2.5 - has moved this line all the way to Panthers +1 as of Saturday.
That's despite a healthy advantage for Washington in the parlay market, where it was seeing as high as 40 times as much money wagered entering the weekend. That suggests this game could creep closer to its original line as public bettors make wagers ahead of kickoff.
Eagles (-3, 49.5) @ Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
The Eagles have rarely rewarded bettors this year, but sharps are betting on Jalen Hurts and this new-look Philly offense in a short chalk spot against the resurgent Cowboys.
The Eagles opened this game as 1.5-point favorites and took plenty of money at that spot before at least one big sharp and a few "smaller nibblers" took this line to 2.5 on Friday afternoon, Rood said. Those bets continued to come into the weekend, bringing this game to a key number, and it doesn't look like the buyback is coming anytime soon.
"This is somewhat of an ugly game, because the sharps are on the Eagles and the bet count is 5-to-1 to the Eagles, too," Rood said. "It looks like the public is going to be coming in with the sharps."
Colts @ Steelers (-1, 44), 1 p.m.
This game is one of the more interesting offerings on the betting menu.
Entering the weekend, the straight-bet money was largely on the Colts, both as 2.5-point underdogs early in the week and 1.5-point favorites later in the week. Since then, an avalanche of parlay money on the Steelers has helped offset the straight-bet handle and flipped this number back in Pittsburgh's favor.
"Little bit of a bizarre game," Rood said on Friday. "Looks like it's going to probably be the most balanced game from a betting perspective, we're just a little out of balance on the point spread. I think that'll start to neutralize by kickoff."
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.