Bills-Patriots best bets: How we're betting the MNF finale
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The Bills were last favored in New England on December 26, 1999.
A week removed from clinching its first AFC East title since 1995, Buffalo is favored by a touchdown at Gillette Stadium in the season's final edition of Monday Night Football.
Here's how we're betting Bills-Patriots.
Alex Kolodziej
Under 46.5
The Patriots' offense is unwatchable. The unit is No. 30 in pass yards, No. 24 in total yards, and No. 27 in scoring. It's been held to 20 points or fewer in four of the last five and have recorded six straight unders.
This is another spot to go back to the well: Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has gone under the total in four straight as a 'dog.
With the Bills cashing four straight unders following a win by 14 or more, we’ll root for another low-scoring game.
Alex Moretto
Zack Moss over 40.5 rushing yards (-115)
Brian Daboll's offense is a well-oiled machine and has been a ton of fun to watch. Josh Allen has been given the leash to sling it around, ranking sixth in the league in pass attempts this season.
The Bills throw the ball over 60% of the time, but this game is going to follow a very different script. Daboll knows the best way to attack the Patriots is on the ground, and it's Buffalo's clearest path to victory in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
New England gave up 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last week after being torched for 171 yards by Cam Akers the previous week. The Pats have been gashed by the ground game all year, and it's only getting worse as the season draws to a close.
There's been a noticeable shift in the Bills' backfield over the last two games, with Moss receiving 26 carries to Devin Singletary's 15. Moss is the bulldozer, and he's in line for a lot of work against a Patriots defense that he already gashed for 81 yards - his season high - on 14 carries in Week 8.
C Jackson Cowart
Bills -7
I've been driving the Bills' bandwagon all year long, and oddsmakers are finally starting to catch up. It hasn't mattered, as Buffalo has won four straight by double digits since the bye week and covered six straight against the spread. It also ranks No. 3 in weighted DVOA.
The Patriots rank 20th by that metric and have lost back-to-back games by double digits, eliminating themselves from the playoffs in the process. I don't anticipate a resurgent effort from this group in a meaningless spot, but I do expect Buffalo to make yet another statement in prime time in a clear mismatch.