NFL Week 17 best bets: Trust Dolphins, Washington in must-win spots
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We continued our late-season surge with another 2-1 week, bringing our record on the year to 22-16-1 against the spread (+4.4 units) with an 11-4 ATS record over the last five weeks. But this week is a completely different animal.
Here are our best bets for Week 17.
Dolphins @ Bills (-3, 43), 1 p.m. ET
This is the one game of the week that I think oddsmakers just plainly got wrong, and I'm buying up all the Dolphins stock I can ahead of Sunday.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott hasn't committed to playing his starters, and he's hinted that a decision hasn't been made one way or the other. Why play coy if the plan is to roll out your top guys for 60 minutes? Buffalo would benefit from a win Sunday, but only if the Steelers also win. That looks unlikely with Pittsburgh set to rest its own starters against the Browns (-10).
If - or when - the Bills sit Josh Allen and Co., Miami is clearly talented enough to take advantage in a must-win spot to secure its place in the playoffs.
Pick: Dolphins +3
Packers (-4.5, 51.5) @ Bears, 4:25 p.m.
This game carries serious playoff implications for both sides, so each club is likely to bring a full effort Sunday - which has me loving the value for the Packers.
Green Bay clobbered the Bears in Week 12 in a game that was far more lopsided than the 16-point margin would suggest. Now, with a chance to clinch the No. 1 seed and potentially his third MVP trophy, Aaron Rodgers is a short favorite versus a team he's gone 18-7 ATS against in his career.
Mitchell Trubisky has played well for Chicago since returning to the starting role, but I simply don't trust him against this Packers defense. Green Bay has totaled 19 sacks during a five-game winning streak - including three in the aforementioned victory against the Bears - and held all five of its opponents over that stretch to under 250 passing yards.
Pick: Packers -4.5
Washington (-2.5, 43) @ Eagles, 8:20 p.m.
Sharps are all over Washington this week, betting the line from a pick 'em to 2.5 over the course of the week. If you grabbed the road team early, congratulations, but there's still value even at this number.
To many, the value on this game hinges on the status of Alex Smith, who has missed practice throughout the week and ceded first-team snaps to backup Taylor Heinicke. Smith would be a jolt for Washington, which has averaged 26.8 points in his five starts. But even if he doesn't play, the team still features the second-ranked defense in DVOA and will give Jalen Hurts fits in his third NFL start.
The Eagles' rookie passer has shown flashes in his first few outings, but he's struggled mightily under pressure and has already been sacked 12 times in just over three games of action. Expect him to have his hands full in a contest Washington needs to win.
Pick: Washington -2.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.