Colts at Bills betting preview: Can Buffalo halt Indy's rushing attack?
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After tearing through the AFC with a franchise-record 13 wins, the Bills (-7, 51.5) face an immediate test against the Colts (11-5), who almost became one of the best teams in recent memory not to make the playoffs. Instead, Indianapolis gets an early chance to knock off the team with the second-shortest Super Bowl odds.
Trends and results
No team is hotter than the Bills, who have covered eight straight against the spread and won each of their last three games by at least 29 points. Sunday's rout of the Dolphins was Buffalo's sixth consecutive double-digit win and fifth ATS win as a home favorite in six tries this season.
Four of the Bills' five ATS losses this year came during a four-game stretch in which the offense scored 24 points or fewer each time. That hasn't happened once in Buffalo's last eight games, during which it's averaged 37.9 points with six overs.
Can the Colts' defense keep pace? Indianapolis stumbled down the stretch with a 2-3-1 ATS record, but it's allowed an opponent to score 30 points just three times this season - tied for the third-best mark by any defense. The Colts' defense held opponents to 18.7 points per game in 11 wins and 31.2 points per game in five losses.
Still, this could be a difficult spot for Indianapolis, which is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog and hasn't caught this many points since 2019. The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as touchdown favorites and 7-1 ATS in their last eight giving points at home.
X-factor
Colts' rushing offense vs. Bills' rushing defense
If the Colts are going to win, they'll need to lean heavily into their offensive identity against an improving (but susceptible) rushing defense.
The Bills allowed two teams (Chiefs, Cardinals) to go over 200 rushing yards this year and ceded at least 5 yards per carry in five of their last 11 games. That's trouble against Indianapolis, which ran wild for 273 yards on 7.4 yards per carry last week against the Jaguars. Jonathan Taylor (30 carries, 253 yards) carried the load in that game and boasted at least 7 yards per carry for the third time in five weeks.
Barring a herculean effort by the Colts' defense, the Bills will convert most of their possessions into points. It's up to Indianapolis' backfield to help its offense keep pace and reduce the opportunities for Josh Allen and Co.
Best bet
Under 51.5
Yes, I know what you're thinking: under on a Bills game? It's true that Buffalo blew most of its totals out of the water during its recent win streak, but it also hasn't faced a defense this stout on all three levels - save for the Steelers, who held the Bills to 26 points in Week 14.
The Colts' best way to stay alive Saturday is by pounding the rock, which should shorten the opportunities for either side. It will also suit the weather conditions, as it's expected to remain below freezing from kickoff to the final whistle. I'd be surprised if either side tops 30 points.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.