Bucs at Washington betting preview: Will pressure get to Brady?
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The Buccaneers (-8, 45) entered the year among the shortest title contenders, and they looked like the NFL's best team at one point.
A few letdowns knocked them down to the NFC's No. 5 seed, but they're still the overwhelming road favorites against Washington - just the fifth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record.
Trends and results
While Tampa Bay has fallen flat multiple times this year, it rarely disappoints in a spot like this. The Buccaneers are 7-2-1 against the spread this campaign when favored by four-plus points, and they're 6-2-1 ATS against teams that ended the year with a losing record.
Tom Brady isn't the same player as during his prime, and this roster isn't the same, either. But the passer's credentials are compelling. He's 22-8-1 ATS over his last 31 games as a touchdown favorite or more, and Brady is 9-4 ATS in his previous 13 contests as a playoff favorite. Yet he's dropped four of his last six road playoff games, and the veteran is 3-9 ATS in his last 12 postseason matchups that didn't follow a bye week.
What about Washington, which ended the year on a 5-2 run to win the NFC East? The team went under in six of those seven games while holding each opponent to 20 points or fewer thanks to the No. 3 defense per DVOA. Washington also went 4-1-1 ATS this year during Alex Smith's six starts, with the one loss coming last week when the line ballooned from a pick'em game to -7 ahead of a six-point victory over the Eagles.
Worried about betting on a team with a losing record? Don't be. The last two clubs to enter the playoffs after going 7-9 were the Seahawks (+10) and the Panthers (-5.5), and both squads won outright while covering by a combined 20.5 points.
X-factor
Tom Brady vs. Washington's pass rush
Brady may have declined, but he still threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns this season, including 1,137 yards and 10 TDs over his final three games. That effectiveness came in part because he was sacked on just 3.3% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate of his career.
Still, as was the case a year ago, he's struggling mightily when facing pressure. Among the 35 quarterbacks who logged 250-plus dropbacks in 2020, Brady ranks 24th in passer rating (54.5) and 31st in adjusted completion percentage (57.9%) when pressured. And despite being pressured just 24.4% of the time (32nd among 35 QBs), he's tied for ninth with five interceptions when dealing with heat.
Washington's front seven is among the league's best. It ranks fourth in pressure rate (25.6%), even while slotting in outside the top 10 in blitz rate (32.4%). The best way to fluster the Bucs' offense is to force Brady's hand without blitzing, and Ron Rivera's defense should be up for that task.
Best bet
Washington +8
I've been a fan of both these teams all year, and this is a reasonable number given the talent on each side. The Bucs' offense isn't built to run up the score against an elite Washington defense, especially if Rivera dials up pressure against Brady.
Conversely, Washington has averaged 25.7 points in Smith's six starts while scoring 20-plus points in every contest - even against the Steelers' and 49ers' top-tier defenses. If Smith can continue his steady play during the veteran's postseason return, this one will stay within the number.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.