Bears at Saints betting preview: Can Payton, Brees avoid playoff letdown?
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No team enters this weekend as a bigger favorite than the Saints (-9.5, 47.5). New Orleans is coming off its fourth straight season with at least 11 wins and its eighth such campaign since 2009. The Vikings cut the Saints' playoff trip short last year; can the seventh-seeded Bears pull off a similar upset?
Trends and results
New Orleans is riding a stellar 8-1 run against the spread, but its tortured playoff history takes center stage here. The Saints are 3-6-1 ATS in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 2010 - including 0-4-1 ATS since 2017 - with a brutal 1-6 ATS record as favorites.
That includes four outright losses in those seven games, highlighted by the team's 2011 defeat to the 7-9 Seahawks and last year's overtime loss to Minnesota. New Orleans is also 0-3-1 ATS with three outright defeats in its last four playoff games that didn't come off a bye.
It's not as though the Bears' playoff history is much rosier, however. Chicago is 2-6 ATS in the postseason this century with an 0-2 ATS record as an underdog. The team also enters this game having gone 2-5 ATS this year against clubs with winning records, averaging 17.4 points per contest in those seven games.
That trend includes a Week 17 loss to the Packers in a contest the Bears needed to win to guarantee a playoff spot. Chicago got one anyway, but it doesn't bode well for this week. Since 2016, wild-card teams coming off a Week 17 loss are 5-8 ATS with a 9-4 record to the under, averaging 18.2 points per game.
X-factor
Saints' skill position players
Is it too simple to say this game hinges on the health of New Orleans' two stars? Perhaps it is, but it's also the most important factor ahead of Sunday's matchup for the NFC South champions.
The Saints are 6-1 ATS this year when Michael Thomas is active and 4-5 ATS when he isn't. They've also had Alvin Kamara available for all but one game this season. Both are questionable for Sunday's contest against a Bears defense ranked fifth in PFF team grades and eighth in DVOA.
Chicago is one of two teams this year not to allow a receiving touchdown to an opposing running back. The Bears are also tied for ninth in touchdowns allowed to opposing wideouts (15). They've been particularly vulnerable against top tight ends, however, though Jared Cook has been quiet since his hot start to the season.
That puts pressure on Thomas and Kamara, two of the game's elite talents, to break through against one of the NFL's stingier scoring defenses. Will they be healthy enough to do so? And can New Orleans win big if they aren't?
Best bet
Under 47.5
I have plenty of questions about both teams, but they're almost entirely on offense. Will Thomas and Kamara be effective in their potential returns? Can Mitchell Trubisky handle the Saints' pass rush? And can either team find the answer against a top-tier defense?
There's also New Orleans' annual playoff letdown on offense - the team is 5-2 to the under in its last seven postseason games and has scored 30 points just once in those contests. If the Saints don't bust this game open, I don't see the Bears doing that, either.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.