Divisional round player props: Fade Goff and buy Brady, Mahomes
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Fantasy championships have already been won and the volume on the board decreases, but that doesn't mean we should ignore individual player props. In fact, bettors might be surprised by how much value they can find in this market late in the year.
Here are some of our favorites for this weekend's four-game divisional round.
Patrick Mahomes' longest completion over 39.5 passing yards
Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense went through some rough patches down the stretch. There was the narrow six-point win over the Broncos to kick off December, a three-interception outing for the all-world quarterback the following week in Miami, and then a mere 17-point performance at home against the Falcons in the penultimate game of the regular season.
However, Kansas City quietly guided through its toughest window, playing five straight defenses ranking in the top half of the league in total DVOA.
| Week | Opponent | DVOA Defense Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Buccaneers | 3 |
| 13 | Broncos | 13 |
| 14 | Dolphins | 11 |
| 15 | Saints | 1 |
| 16 | Falcons | 14 |
A rested Mahomes and his supporting cast should be salivating. The Browns rank No. 25 in the league against the pass and in total DVOA. The kicker? They've played the easiest slate of opposing offenses this season.
It'll be bombs away at Arrowhead for Mahomes, who has his easiest matchup since Week 11.
Jared Goff under 1.5 TD passes
A wintery mix is expected to hit Lambeau Field on Saturday, which spells bad news for Rams quarterback Jared Goff. He's thrown five interceptions and zero touchdowns in two freezing-cold games in his career.
L.A. has the lowest team total on the board this weekend, so the market isn't expecting a ton of points from the road team here. Goff also has a stingy matchup in general against a Packers secondary led by Jaire Alexander, who's PFF's No. 1 cornerback in the league.
This under is a home run.
Tom Brady over 2.5 TD passes
This is a solid number grab at +150. I'm willing to invest in Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady, who hopefully have something up their sleeves for Round 3 against the Saints.
Tampa Bay was outclassed by its division rival in two regular-season meetings, getting outscored 72-26. Brady logged 239 yards and two touchdowns in the first tilt back in the opener. In the second, Brady threw three picks in a 38-3 rout.
However, no unit is gelling better than Tampa's offense right now. The Bucs are up to No. 3 in the NFL in DVOA offense, thanks to averaging north of 38 points per game over the previous four.
New Orleans has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league. If Tampa's going to compete this time around, it'll have to score through the air.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.