Conference championship game props: Packers own the second quarter
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The Super Bowl's right around the corner, which means it's time to get in shape for props season.
The conference championship games this weekend don't offer quite as many exotic markets, but there are a couple of standard game props that we're dialing in.
Here are some of the best bets for both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
Buccaneers-Packers
Highest-scoring quarter - 2nd (+180)
There's something about the second quarter for this high-powered Packers offense.
They put up 14 points in the second frame during last week's win over the Rams and have now scored at least 10 points in 14 of 17 second quarters this year. Green Bay's averaging 13.3 points per second frame overall.
Not to be outdone, the Buccaneers' highest-scoring quarter this season has also been the second, at 8.8 points. This one's a no-brainer.
Bills-Chiefs
Highest-scoring half - 1st (-110)
Both offenses start hot. The Bills rank No. 3 in the league in first-half points at 15.7 per game while the Chiefs are right on their heels, tied for fourth at 15.4.
Buffalo's offense in particular will be licking its chops right out of the gates. The Bills were limited to just nine drives and 50 total plays in the previous meeting back in Week 6. Kansas City's secondary was peaking around that time, ranking No. 6 in pass defense DVOA through the first nine weeks. However, from Weeks 10 to 17, the Chiefs dropped to No. 29, per Football Outsiders.
Meanwhile, Kansas City scripted a gem last weekend, scoring on its first four drives. There might be more combined points in the first half this Sunday than there were altogether in the previous tilt.
And I'm only partly joking.
Total field goals - Under 3.5 (-140)
Field goals aren't going to cut it in a matchup featuring two top-five DVOA offenses with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
The red zone is an area where both teams should get six points, not three. Both the Bills and Chiefs allow opponents to score touchdowns on more than 60% of their red-zone drives, while Kansas City is last by a wide margin.
Percentage of red-zone trips resulting in TDs (bottom five)
| Team | RZ TD % |
|---|---|
| Patriots | 65.31% |
| Saints | 65.52% |
| Titans | 67.65% |
| Lions | 72.31% |
| Chiefs | 77.55% |
Hopefully, the head coaches leave the kickers on the sideline and the quarterbacks on the field when it matters most.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.