NFC championship player props: Will Brady torch Packers' D?
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Bettors are in for a treat Sunday when the Buccaneers and Packers square off in the NFC Championship Game. With two savvy quarterbacks ready to lead their respective high-powered offenses to a Super Bowl berth, what more could you ask for?
We've already taken a deep dive into this one, dishing out our preview and best bet on the total. Today, we're offering up our favorite player props.
Here's what stands out.
Tom Brady's longest completion under 37.5 yards
This is a favorable overall matchup for Brady. He's helped Tampa's offense post 36.6 points per game over the team's last five contests, logging at least 365 passing yards in four of them. The Buccaneers are underdogs against the Packers' top-ranked offense, and the total is gradually rising above 50, so expect another gaudy stat line from the GOAT.
That said, we're somewhat bearish on his longest pass completion prop.
Brady was a magician down the stretch, recording a long throw of at least 46 yards in each of his final five regular-season contests. He had a string of solid matchups, though, drawing five consecutive defenses that ranked 14th or worse.
He's faced Washington and the Saints in the playoffs so far, teams that rank second and third in DVOA pass defense, respectively. He was held under his longest completion prop in both.
The Packers' defense isn't as stout as Washington's or New Orleans', but the unit has limited big plays. Green Bay ranks No. 5 in explosive pass play allowed this season, and its best defensive players - including PFF's top cornerback, Jaire Alexander - are along the perimeter.
Look for Green Bay to take away the deep threat Sunday.
Aaron Jones under 3.5 receptions
Davante Adams will always be the focal point of the Packers' passing game, but Jones quietly burst onto the scene earlier this season.
The featured back hauled in 33 receptions over the first eight games, with two scores to boot. But he's since slowed down.
Jones has caught three or more passes just once over Green Bay's last seven games; he hasn't seen more than five targets in any of those contests and doesn't have a receiving touchdown over that stretch.
The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most receptions to opposing running backs this season at 6.06 per game. Still, the Packers failed to turn Jones loose in the first meeting between these teams, as he recorded just three catches for 26 yards.
Expect another subpar receiving performance from the fourth-year tailback.
Rob Gronkowski over 2.5 catches
Brady will have the middle of the field at his disposal all afternoon: Green Bay's Krys Barnes and Christian Kirksey rank 61st and 67th out of 79 linebackers in coverage grades, respectively.
Gronkowski has been quiet on the stat sheet lately, but this should be a patented day for him after he had five catches, 78 yards, and a score in Tampa's regular-season meeting with the Packers.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.