Our best bets for Super Bowl LV
You've done all the research for Super Bowl LV between the Chiefs (-3, 56.5) and Buccaneers. You've read our game preview and MVP picks. You've studied the quarterback matchup and the best props for Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Maybe you've even dabbled in the national anthem market, too.
But what about the one bet that stands above the rest? We've got you covered there, too. Here are our best bets for Super Bowl LV:
Over 56.5 (-110)
I just cannot envision either team winning by handing the ball off. This is Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady, Andy Reid vs. Bruce Arians, and a high-flying Chiefs skill corps against one of the top supporting casts in the league. Both offenses are top-three in DVOA and I don't expect a feeling-out process, either, considering the two combine for more than 30 points in the first half this year.
Brady has averaged north of 48 passing attempts over his last four Super Bowls; Mahomes has averaged 46 passing attempts in three games against top-10 rush DVOA defenses this season; the Buccaneers are tops in almost every rushing defense statistic, so don't expect the clock to be a factor here.
It should be a shootout from the start, and one that should finish comfortably over the total.
- Alex Kolodziej
First quarter under 10.5 points (-125)
Brady’s history of slow starts in the Super Bowl is impossible to ignore. In his previous nine appearances in the big game, Brady's teams have scored a grand total of three points in the opening 15 minutes - three first-quarter points in nine games. Not only does Brady not score early in these games, his opponents don’t, either:
| Super Bowl | Brady 1Q points | Opponent 1Q points | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIII | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LII | 3 | 9 | 12 |
| LI | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| XLIX | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| XLVI | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| XLII | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| XXXIX | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| XXXVIII | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| XXXVI | 0 | 3 | 3 |
For the first time in his career, he won’t be playing for the Patriots in the Super Bowl, but it doesn't matter here, because the last thing the Buccaneers want is for this to become a track meet. That’s not to say their offense can’t keep up, but given the quality of their defense and ability to run the ball, a slow-paced game suits them much more. They’re going to come out running the ball and playing aggressive defense in the hopes of preventing Kansas City’s offense from getting into an early groove.
The Chiefs have been slow starters as well in the playoffs under Mahomes. They’ve scored just six total points in the first quarter of their two postseason games this year and managed seven in last year’s Super Bowl, scoring a touchdown with just 31 seconds left as the opening quarter ended on exactly 10 points. Both of their playoff games this year have finished under 10 points in the first quarter, while all three of Tampa’s have. The Buccaneers have allowed just six points in the first quarter of their three playoff games, and I’m confident in the trend continuing on Sunday.
- Alex Moretto
First score will not be a touchdown (+175)
The first prop bet I made this year was first-quarter points under 10.5, for all of the reasons laid out so beautifully above. The second bet? The first score won't be a touchdown.
But what about those high-powered offenses, you say? Consider that the first score was a field goal in each of the last three Super Bowls - yes, including the record-setting 41-33 contest in 2018 and last year's game featuring these same Chiefs. Six of the 10 Super Bowls featuring either of these quarterbacks opened with something other than a touchdown.
In fact, the first score has been something other than a touchdown in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls and has occurred 25 times in the 54-year history of the big game. That's 46.3% of the time, which would suggest odds closer to +115, not +175. Many bettors want a high-scoring game on Sunday, and they certainly might get it - just don't expect that to come early on.
- C Jackson Cowart
(Odds source: theScore Bet)