Super Bowl LV Pros vs. Joes: Sharps like Bucs, public playing Chiefs late
So far during the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl LV, the story for bettors has been the considerable momentum behind the Buccaneers (+3), who opened as 3.5-point underdogs at most shops. Now, with just over 24 hours before kickoff, the public is making its play on the favored Chiefs at a cheaper price.
The defending champions are currently dealing at -3 (-115), which has helped balance the ledger after an early run of money on Tampa Bay. Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, expects this line to settle at -3 (-120) if the public keeps riding Kansas City at its current pace.
"The early action was pretty much all wise-guy action, but the last 24 hours there's been more volume of public money," Rood said Saturday afternoon. "So I think we’re going to see that come in stronger between now and kickoff.”
Rood said his book took a handful of bets over $200,000 on both sides before the line moved, in addition to multiple five-figure wagers on the moneyline. The Buccaneers (+145) have experienced a two-to-one advantage in money and tickets on the moneyline, and they're a four-to-one liability in that market. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are pulling 20 times as much money in parlay activity.
"We're seeing pretty good two-way at this price," Rood said. "Maybe a little bit more to the Chiefs on the point spread and a little bit more to the Buccaneers on the moneyline. But that’s traditionally how the Super Bowl gets bet.”
Since the line shifted to 3, the Chiefs have pulled three times as many straight-bet tickets, and four times as much money as the Buccaneers, whom sharps targeted at +3.5 (-115) before the market moved off that price late in the week.
Early line movement has traditionally been an excellent bellwether for bettors wagering on the big game. In the 40 Super Bowls featuring a line move, the team that saw movement in its direction went 27-12-1 against the spread, according to BetMGM's John Ewing.
The total has been a bit more one-sided, though there's still a split between sharps and public bettors ahead of Sunday. After the total opened at 58, sharps played it down to 56 before it bounced back to 56.5, where Rood says the action has been fairly split.
All told, the under is drawing three times as much money, though roughly 70% of the tickets are favoring the over, which is currently the third-highest rate in Super Bowl history.
"The public is definitely coming in on the over," Rood said. "They’re just not coming in with the size of bets that we’re seeing on the under.”
As for the props market, Tom Brady is the biggest liability to be named MVP after one sizable wager at 2-1 odds, while bettors like Mike Evans (12-1), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (14-1), and Jason Pierre-Paul (250-1) to score the first touchdown. The anytime scorer market is drawing more money than any other prop, with Evans (-140) and Leonard Fournette (-140) garnering the most action.
Those markets are also generating some wild long-shot bets, too. One bettor wagered $1 on Chad Henne to score a touchdown (20-1), while two bettors took a shot on Blaine Gabbert to score twice (1000-1). The two have combined for one rushing or receiving touchdown since 2017.
Some specific game props are drawing the interest of bettors, too. Rood says his book faces a liability of some significance on the Chiefs winning by exactly nine points (23-1), while one sharp bettor played the Bucs to score first and win (3-1) and to lead after the first half and win (11-5).
The biggest liability of all? The same bettor who played Tampa Bay's double results wagered on zero combined sacks at 6-1, which would pay out five figures if it hits.
“I’ll be pretty happy once they record that first sack on Brady on the first drive," Rood said.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.