Thinking of betting the Bucs to repeat? Here's why that rarely works
It's been almost two decades since Tom Brady led the Patriots to back-to-back Super Bowl titles in 2004-05. Some bettors are wondering if he can do it again following the Buccaneers' Super Bowl victory a week ago.
The odds are stacked heavily against a repeat. With this year's loss to Tampa Bay, the Chiefs became the 16th consecutive team to win the Super Bowl and fail to repeat the following season. They're one of just three clubs to even reach the title game again in that span, with five other teams missing the playoffs entirely.
Here's every defending champion since 2005 and how each team has fared the following year. (Betting data from Pro Football Reference)
| Team (Season) | SB Odds | Win totoal | Record | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs (2020) | +450 | 11.5 | 14-2 | Lost in Super Bowl |
| Patriots (2019) | +400 | 11.5 | 12-4 | Lost in Wild Card Round |
| Eagles (2018) | +1400 | 10.5 | 9-7 | Lost in Divisional Round |
| Patriots (2017) | +275 | 12.5 | 13-3 | Lost in Super Bowl |
| Broncos (2016) | +2500 | 9.5 | 9-7 | Missed playoffs |
| Patriots (2015) | +800 | 10.5 | 12-4 | Lost in AFC Championship |
| Seahawks (2014) | +450 | 11 | 12-4 | Lost in Super Bowl |
| Ravens (2013) | +2500 | 8.5 | 8-8 | Missed playoffs |
| Giants (2012) | +1800 | 9 | 9-7 | Missed playoffs |
| Packers (2011) | +650 | 11.5 | 15-1 | Lost in Divisional Round |
| Saints (2010) | +1000 | 10.5 | 11-5 | Lost in Wild Card Round |
| Steelers (2009) | +1000 | 10.5 | 9-7 | Missed playoffs |
| Giants (2008) | +2000 | 8.5 | 12-4 | Lost in Divisional Round |
| Colts (2007) | +800 | 10.5 | 13-3 | Lost in Divisional Round |
| Steelers (2006) | +1200 | 10.5 | 8-8 | Missed playoffs |
| Patriots (2005) | +500 | 11 | 10-6 | Lost in Divisional Round |
The regular season has actually been kind to defending champions. Since 2005, the reigning titleholders have averaged 11 victories with a 9-6-1 record to the over on each squad's win total. Every team finished at least .500, with half of the clubs boasting 12-plus wins during a repeat bid.
The postseason, however, has reeked of disappointment. Despite being favored in 16 of 20 playoff games, those teams combined for a 9-11 record straight up and a 7-13 mark against the spread. That includes some spectacular letdowns. Remember the Saints losing to the 7-9 Seahawks in 2010? Or the Giants blowing out the 15-win Packers in 2011?
In those 16 years, the amount of defending champs that have missed the playoffs (five) is nearly even with the number of postseason wins from the group (six), and four of the latter clubs triumphed following a bye week. A week off is harder to earn now with each conference only awarding a bye to the top seed.
Brady's teams have averaged 11.7 wins as the defending champions while reaching the big game again twice, with six playoff victories over those six campaigns, including three during that 2004-05 run. If he can repeat with the Buccaneers (+800), Brady would once again be defying the odds in a way only he seemingly can.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.