NFL OROY odds: Buy Fields over Lance in 2021 rookie class
The NFL draft is over, but the opportunities to make money aren't. Now that we have a lay of the land on how top-tier prospects fit with their respective homes, we can start taking stabs at a variety of NFL betting markets.
Here's how the early odds shape up for Offensive Rookie of the Year, as well as our first initial looks on who we'd bet and fade.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | +300 |
| QB Justin Fields (CHI) | +600 |
| QB Trey Lance (SF) | +600 |
| QB Zach Wilson (NYJ) | +700 |
| RB Najee Harris (PIT) | +1000 |
| WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | +1100 |
| TE Kyle Pitts (ATL) | +1100 |
| QB Mac Jones (NE) | +1200 |
| WR DeVonta Smith (PHI) | +1400 |
| WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | +1600 |
| RB Travis Etienne (JAX) | +2500 |
| RB Trey Sermon (SF) | +2500 |
| RB Michael Carter (NYJ) | +3300 |
| WR Kadarius Toney (NYG) | +3300 |
| RB Javonte Williams (DEN) | +3300 |
| WR Rashod Bateman (BAL) | +4000 |
| WR Elijah Moore (NYJ) | +4000 |
| WR Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR) | +5000 |
| WR Rondale Moore (ARI) | +6000 |
Best bets
Justin Fields (+600)
This is the best value of the quarterbacks. Fields' dual-threat abilities offer huge upside and he'll likely see more action than Lance. Plus, if the Packers trade Aaron Rodgers out of the NFC North, the Bears become that much more intriguing.
Ja'Marr Chase (+1100)
There's a reason he was the first receiver off the board. Chase - who led the nation in receiving yards (1780) and touchdowns (20) for LSU in 2019 - is the most all-around weapon in this class, and one that won't necessarily need Joe Burrow under center right away to flourish.
Volume won't be an issue, either. Cincinnati passed the ball at the fifth-highest rate in head coach Zac Taylor's first season two years ago, while Burrow put up a whopping 40.4 attempts per game in 2020 before hitting the shelf.
Players to avoid
Trey Lance (+600)
Lance would likely be second in this field behind Trevor Lawrence if a starting job was guaranteed. Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo is an overwhelming -400 favorite to be under center for the 49ers in Week 1, meaning the No. 3 overall pick could miss out on valuable time early.
Jaylen Waddle (+1600)
Waddle may not see as many touches per game as Chase or Smith as a rookie, but he'll dazzle whenever he does. Unfortunately, this hasn't been the formula for winning the award.
The splashy, big-play skill players rarely draw support in this market, save for Percy Harvin in 2009 and to a lesser extent, Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 (he caught 91 passes).
Tua Tagovailoa was one of the worst quarterbacks in yards per attempt in 2020 and Waddle won't get a huge share of touches alongside DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and Mike Gesicki.
Sleeper
Rashod Bateman (+4000)
Bateman was going to be a steal for any team picking late in the first round, but there wasn't a better fit than the Ravens. They've been starving for consistency at wide receiver, and Bateman's versatility - he'll play both in the slot and outside - will keep him on the field.
Marquise Brown led the team with a paltry 58 catches in 2020 and it's only a matter of time until Bateman overtakes him as WR1 on Baltimore's roster. This is insane value at 40-1.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.