NFL DPOY odds: Fade the Watts, bet this sleeper
We dove into the Offensive Player of the Year market on Monday, citing Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford as solid value plays. Today, we'll flip to the other side of the ball and profile the defense.
Here are the odds to win 2021 Defensive Player of the Year, along with two fades and one best bet.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Donald | +400 |
| Myles Garrett | +400 |
| T.J. Watt | +800 |
| Khalil Mack | +1200 |
| Nick Bosa | +1200 |
| Joey Bosa | +1300 |
| Chase Young | +1600 |
| Derwin James | +2200 |
| JJ Watt | +3000 |
| Jalen Ramsey | +3000 |
| Von Miller | +3000 |
| Danielle Hunter | +3300 |
| Darius Leonard | +3300 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | +3300 |
| Shaquil Barrett | +3300 |
| Stephon Gilmore | +3300 |
| Bobby Wagner | +3500 |
| Devin White | +3500 |
| Tre'Davious White | +3800 |
| Bradley Chubb | +4000 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | +4000 |
| Xavien Howard | +4000 |
| Chandler Jones | +4200 |
| Jamal Adams | +4500 |
| Marcus Peters | +4500 |
| Za'Darius Smith | +4500 |
| Chris Jones | +4500 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | +5000 |
| Eric Kendricks | +5000 |
| Jaire Alexander | +5000 |
| Marshon Lattimore | +5000 |
| Patrick Peterson | +5000 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | +5000 |
Fade
T.J. Watt (+800)
I'm curious about what type of season it'll take to take for Watt to win this award. After finishing third in voting in 2019, he led the league in sacks (15.0), tackles for loss (23), and quarterback hits (41) on a team that won its division in 2020 and still finished second behind Aaron Donald, who finished with 13.5, 14, and 28, respectively.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' 37.3% blitz rate last season was the second-highest in the NFL in the last five years, and the unit finished No. 1 in DVOA. Though this isn't a team award, Watt may find it hard to stand out on a club that's projected to go .500 this fall.
J.J Watt (+3000)
Disclaimer: I don't have grudge against the Watt family.
The elder brother is familiar with this award; he's one of only three players to win it three times, doing so over just a four-year span.
However, the 10-year vet has since dealt with a plethora of injuries, playing eight or fewer games in three of the last five years. His move to the Arizona Cardinals is intriguing, but Watt's totaled only 9.5 sacks across the last two campaigns.
Frankly, he is a shell of his former self and can't be taken seriously at +3000.
Bet
DeMarcus Lawrence (+5000)
I don't feel comfortable investing in the top of the board, but I think Lawrence at 50-1 is unbelievable value for a player who can be extremely productive under new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
PFF ranked Lawrence as the No. 7 edge rusher heading into 2021. The Dallas Cowboys star has placed in the top 10 league-wide in pass-rush win rate for four straight seasons and will once again feast on a division light along the offensive line.
Lawrence can also make plays in the run game, as he's posted a 90.1 grade in this department since 2017.
He's the best flier on the board, and one I'd feel comfortable betting at 40-1 or better.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.