Cowboys 2021 win total preview: Fade Dallas in another bounce-back year
The Cowboys are one of the most popular teams in the betting markets on an annual basis. But will the franchise take a wide-open NFC East this fall or continue to underwhelm?
Let's analyze the club's 2021 projection and see where the value lies.
Cowboys' 2021 win total
Over: 9.5 (+115)
Under: 9.5 (-135)
A look back
The Cowboys were poised to bounce back in 2020 - after all, they had done just about everything right the year prior, with little to show for it.
Dallas finished No. 5 in the NFL in scoring margin and No. 6 in total DVOA in 2019 but lost six of its eight games by one score and four of them by four points or fewer. The end result was an 8-8 season, despite the Cowboys performing like a club with an 11-4-record. Plus, with Jason Garrett out and a new change of pace in the coaching staff, Dallas was the definition of a bet-on team last year.
And then everything unraveled.
The defense couldn't stop a single soul, quarterback Dak Prescott sustained a serious knee injury early, and the offense could no longer bail out one of the worst units in football. The Cowboys sunk to 6-10, got outscored by close to five points per game, and had to watch Washington win the division and make the playoffs at just 7-9.
Things have to get better, right?
Breakdown
Prescott's injury was the biggest blow to the roster, but Dallas had a tough time staying healthy altogether. The club was No. 9 in the league in games lost due to injury and No. 3 in impact players lost to injury. There's no guarantee the Cowboys will be lucky in this department this fall, but these variables tend to balance out over time.
If Dallas can stay afloat, the schedule's optimal no matter how you slice it: The squad has the second-easiest slate of opponents in the league when factoring in Super Bowl odds and the No. 1 draw when using both last year's and this year's win totals.
The offense put up 30 or more points in four of Prescott's five starts last campaign before he went down. The line's in great shape as a fringe top-five unit in the NFL, while the supporting cast could be one of the best.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense landed some reinforcements through the draft - Dallas' first six picks were defensive players - but the team's ceiling is still in the middle of the pack. Last season, the unit finished No. 23 in both DVOA and yards per play allowed.
Best bet - Under 9.5 (-135)
Here we are again, projecting the Cowboys will have a better year than the one before. The franchise is certainly due, but 10 wins is a stretch, despite playing a 17-game campaign.
The strength of schedule is on par, but it's not the be-all, end-all - just last year, Dallas earned the third-easiest draw in football but finished four games under .500.
The club should also be much healthier in 2021, but so should the rest of the NFC East: The Eagles (No. 2 in games lost due to injury), Washington (No. 6), and Giants (No. 8) actually all missed more combined contests than the Cowboys.
Dallas is a common investment in the betting markets, and the spotlight will only grow once the team's featured on HBO's "Hard Knocks" in August. I'm still bearish, though, and wouldn't feel comfortable banking on double-digit wins.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.