49ers 2021 win total preview: Contenders ready to bounce back
You never really know what you're going to get with the 49ers.
A franchise that's been to the Super Bowl twice over the last decade is also tied for the fewest winning seasons (4) in the NFL since 2003. Naturally, San Francisco followed up a trip to the title game with a six-win campaign a season ago.
What should bettors expect this fall? Let's profile the 49ers and see which way we're leaning.
2021 49ers win total
Over: 10.5 (+110)
Under: 10.5 (-130)
A look back
You can't call it a Super Bowl hangover if a majority of your key players aren't available.
The 49ers were set up for another deep run last year, ranking No. 4 in the league in returning snap production. However, the injury bug bit: San Francisco led the league in both games lost due to injury (the only team in the NFL with more than 300) and impact players lost due to injury.
The crazy part? The 49ers finished in the top five in net yards per play and No. 11 overall in total DVOA - which was better than playoff teams such as the Titans, Browns, and Washington - despite their last-place finish in the NFC West.
Breakdown
This number's priced as if the 49ers - who have a lack of weaknesses on their roster - will stay healthy. If they can, they'll compete for an NFC West title and cement themselves as legitimate contenders.
Trent Williams was football's highest-rated offensive tackle last season, while guard Mike McGlinchey ranked second in the NFL in run-blocking. After clocking out as PFF's No. 9 overall unit in 2020, the line warranted the same grade this summer.
The defensive line, meanwhile, will get huge boosts from Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, who were both sidelined for most of last year. The unit in 2019 ranked No. 2 in DVOA defense while pacing the league in DVOA with pressure.
Top 5 DVOA defenses with pass pressure (2019 ranks)
| Team | DVOA With Pressure |
|---|---|
| 49ers | -105.1% |
| Vikings | -86.4% |
| Buccaneers | -85.1% |
| Ravens | -84.3% |
| Steelers | -83.8% |
Head coach and offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan has a solid supporting cast to work with. Tight end George Kittle, who was well on his way to a third straight 1,000-yard season before hitting injured reserve in Week 9, headlines that group.
Best bet - Over 10.5
I love getting the plus-money attached to this number rather than paying a bunch of tax for over 9.5.
Eleven victories looks like an uphill battle on paper after a 6-10 campaign, but a healthy 49ers club can do it. San Francisco won 13 games in 2019 and reached the Super Bowl.
The market likes Kyle Shanahan (+1300, second-shortest odds) as a Coach of the Year candidate, and so do I. Plus, whether you use odds for this year or last year's combined opponents' winning percentage, San Francisco draws a favorable schedule.
49ers' strength of schedule ranks
| 2021 Win Totals | 2021 Super Bowl Odds | 2020 Win % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Rank | 1 | 3 | 12 |
This has all the makings of a big year for a team with a lot of talent. Their division is the toughest in football, but the 49ers are one club I'm certain takes flight in 2021.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.