NFL OPOY odds: Plenty of value on Allen, Stafford
Eight straight quarterbacks have won MVP, but the Offensive Player of the Year award has been a bit more spread out.
Three non-passers have taken home the hardware since 2017, including Titans running back Derrick Henry last season. However, we're dialed in on a couple of signal-callers with some serious value in the 2021 market.
Here are our best bets for Offensive Player of the Year:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| QB Patrick Mahomes | +700 |
| RB Derrick Henry | +700 |
| RB Christian McCaffrey | +1000 |
| TE George Kittle | +1200 |
| RB Dalvin Cook | +1500 |
| RB Saquon Barkley | +1500 |
| RB Nick Chubb | +1500 |
| QB Josh Allen | +1500 |
| RB Alvin Kamara | +1500 |
| TE Travis Kelce | +1500 |
| WR Davante Adams | +1500 |
| QB Aaron Rodgers | +1800 |
| WR Stefon Diggs | +1800 |
| QB Lamar Jackson | +1800 |
| QB Tom Brady | +2000 |
| QB Kyler Murray | +2000 |
| RB Jonathan Taylor | +2000 |
| QB Russell Wilson | +2000 |
| WR DeAndre Hopkins | +2200 |
| RB Ezekiel Elliott | +2500 |
| WR Calvin Ridley | +2500 |
| WR Tyreek Hill | +2500 |
| QB Dak Prescott | +2500 |
| RB Cam Akers | +2500 |
| QB Matthew Stafford | +2500 |
| WR Michael Thomas | +2500 |
| RB Najee Harris | +3300 |
| RB Raheem Mostert | +3300 |
| QB Justin Herbert | +3300 |
| WR Justin Jefferson | +3300 |
| RB Aaron Jones | +3300 |
| RB Austin Ekeler | +3300 |
| RB Chris Carson | +4000 |
| WR Julio Jones | +4000 |
| QB Taysom Hill | +4000 |
| RB Leonard Fournette | +4000 |
| RB J.K. Dobbins | +4000 |
| RB Antonio Gibson | +4000 |
| QB Deshaun Watson | +4000 |
| RB Joe Mixon | +5000 |
| QB Ryan Tannehill | +5000 |
| RB Josh Jacobs | +5000 |
| WR D.K. Metcalf | +5000 |
| TE Darren Waller | +5000 |
| QB Baker Mayfield | +5000 |
| WR Allen Robinson | +5000 |
| QB Joe Burrow | +5000 |
Only displaying players with odds 50-1 or shorter
Best bets
Josh Allen (+1500)
Arguably no other quarterback improved their stock last year more than Allen.
After taking a small step forward following a subpar rookie season, the University of Wyoming product burst onto the scene in 2020. He finished in the top five in a plethora of categories, putting up big numbers both through the air and on the ground en route to the AFC East title.
| Category | League Rank for QBs |
|---|---|
| Fantasy Points Per Game | 1 |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 3 |
| Air Yards | 3 |
| Completed Air Yards | 4 |
| Money Throws | 4 |
| Passing Yards | 5 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 5 |
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll essentially banned the run and let Allen make plays on his own. The Bills dialed up passes on 61.7% of their snaps, up from 54% during the previous year. Allen was a human highlight reel down the stretch, tossing 21 touchdowns against four interceptions and recording four rushing scores across the final nine games.
Outside of his usage and dual-threat abilities, picking up wins will help Allen in this market: Offensive Player of the Year winners have averaged 12.2 victories per season since 2015.
Off a 13-win campaign, Buffalo's in good shape this fall. The franchise has one of the 10 easiest schedules, whether you use last year's combined opponents' winning percentage (No. 9) or this season's combined opponents' win totals (No. 9).
Matthew Stafford (+2500)
The Rams didn't put together a massive trade package for Stafford to live and die by the run. Cam Akers (+2500) has patched up the hole at running back in the wake of Todd Gurley's departure, but all eyes will be on the veteran quarterback as he gears up for Year 1 in L.A.
This is a solid change of scenery for Stafford, who comes over to the West Coast after spending 12 years with the Lions. He was sacked a whopping 38 times in 2020 (seventh-most for qualified quarterbacks) and ranked No. 36 in the league in pass-protection rate (77.8%).
Stafford's supporting cast won't be an issue this fall: PFF graded both the Rams' offensive line and skill corps No. 8 in the NFL.
Bettors shouldn't be fazed by Stafford entering his age-33 season, either. He's played a full 16-game schedule in nine of his last 10 campaigns, while four quarterbacks - Tom Brady (2010), Drew Brees ('11), Peyton Manning ('13), and Matt Ryan ('16) - have all won the award past their age-30 seasons.
The Rams are the NFC West favorites and legitimate contenders with Stafford under center. He's the best pick among players 20-1 or better.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. Find him on Twitter @AjKolodziej.