NFL Hall of Fame Game preview: Focus on backup QBs in preseason opener
There are few things more volatile to bet than the NFL preseason, which features backups playing meaningless football in pursuit of personal gain over actual winning. But it can be profitable if you know how to attack it.
We went 11-2 in 2019, the last time the NFL held preseason games, and we're ready to hit the ground running with Thursday's Hall of Fame Game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers (-1). Here's how to bet it:
Cowboys vs. Steelers (-1, 34)
At first blush, the total for Thursday's game is notably low, even by preseason standards. One look at the quarterback depth charts may change your mind.
The Cowboys are delaying Dak Prescott's return to game action after a recent shoulder strain followed his more severe ankle injury from 2020, which puts even more pressure on the backup quarterback in Dallas. It's an uninspiring lot - Garrett Gilbert will likely get the start, while Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush will finish out Thursday's contest.
On the other side, the Steelers will start Mason Rudolph before handing the reins to former first-round pick Dwayne Haskins to close the first half. Here's an easy stat to quantify how bad that is: Rudolph finished dead last in QBR (36.2) among qualified starters in 2019, while Haskins finished last (31.0) in 2020 before getting cut by Washington.
Those two will be spelled in the second half in favor of Joshua Dobbs, who's thrown 17 passes and has a career passer rating of 39.1. It's not much better for the Cowboys: DiNucci produced a brutal 13.5 QBR in his lone appearance as a rookie in 2020, while Rush has attempted three passes in his four-year NFL career.
Neither side is likely to employ its starters for more than a handful of drives, though Dallas may be inclined to see some extended run from its defense after rebuilding the unit in the offseason. The Steelers' defense was among the NFL's best a year ago, and while their starters won't play much in this one, the depth of their front seven should make life difficult for the Cowboys' young arms.
This game would profile as a low-scoring affair in any week, but there's an advantage for under bettors with it coming so soon after training camp. Since 2010, the average combined score in the Hall of Fame Game is 29.5 points, and six of those eight contests checked in below 34 points (two were canceled).
The Broncos and Falcons combined for a mere 24 points in last year's Hall of Fame Game, and both of these coaching staffs have a history of low-scoring contests in the preseason. Expect another one Thursday.
Pick: Under 34
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].