Coach of the Year odds, best bet: A glimmer for Zimmer?
Maybe you jumped at the chance to bet on the Denver Broncos when Aaron Rodgers was rumored to be joining the less scandalous version of the Mile High Club, or perhaps you hopped on the Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North during the one weekend we thought Rodgers might retire.
If you're still looking for a way to fade the Green Bay Packers, even with the MVP's return, one market is still lagging behind: Coach of the Year.
| Coach | 2020 Team Wins | 2021 Exp. Wins | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Staley | 7 | 8.5 | +1200 |
| Kevin Stefanski | 11 | 10.5 | +1200 |
| Kyle Shanahan | 6 | 10.5 | +1300 |
| Arthur Smith | 11 | 9.5 | +1500 |
| Brian Flores | 10 | 9.5 | +1500 |
| Sean McVey | 10 | 10.5 | +1500 |
| Frank Reich | 11 | 8.5 | +1500 |
| Bill Belichick | 7 | 9.5 | +1600 |
| Sean McDermott | 13 | 11 | +1700 |
| Ron Rivera | 7 | 8.5 | +1800 |
| Andy Reid | 14 | 12.5 | +1800 |
| Sean Payton | 12 | 8.5 | +2000 |
| Robert Saleh | 2 | 6 | +2000 |
| John Harbaugh | 11 | 11.5 | +2000 |
| Matt Rhule | 5 | 7.5 | +2200 |
| Bruce Arians | 8 | 11.5 | +2200 |
| Joe Judge | 6 | 7 | +2500 |
| Vic Fangio | 5 | 8.5 | +2500 |
| Mike Zimmer | 7 | 8.5 | +2500 |
| Pete Carroll | 12 | 9.5 | +2500 |
| Matt LaFleur | 13 | 10.5 | +2800 |
| Mike Tomlin | 12 | 8.5 | +2800 |
| Urban Meyer | 1 | 6.5 | +2800 |
| Mike Vrabel | 11 | 9.5 | +2800 |
| Mike McCarthy | 6 | 9.5 | +3000 |
| Matt Nagy | 8 | 7.5 | +3300 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | 8 | 8.5 | +3300 |
| Dan Campbell | 5 | 5 | +3800 |
| Zak Taylor | 4 | 6.5 | +4000 |
| David Culley | 4 | 4.5 | +5000 |
| Jon Gruden | 8 | 7.5 | +5000 |
| Nick Sirianni | 4 | 7 | +5000 |
The key to taking home a Coach of the Year award is the element of surprise - either from a massive increase in wins or an unexpected division title. Since these awards are voted on before the playoffs, an underdog run to the Super Bowl isn't factored in. You should start your COTY handicapping by using the table above to determine who's most likely to have a shocking season (in a good way).
Bet: Mike Zimmer (+2500)
The defensive-minded Mike Zimmer may not be a sexy pick, but the Vikings' offense should be a force with a healthy stable of weapons for Kirk Cousins. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota gets back a handful of key pieces that were either injured or opted out last season. Zimmer slowly coached his young players to respectability in 2020. With reinforcements arriving and the return of 50,000 or so vocal assistants in Minneapolis, the defense will be greatly improved in 2021.
If you believe Rodgers' return means everything is crackers and brie in Green Bay, you're welcome to back the team to win the division at -160. If you're not willing to bet the big price on cheesehead harmony, you could pick the Vikings (+250) to win the NFC North, but there are better ways to join in on a virtual "Skol!" chant.
| Team | Odds | Implied Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Packers | -160 | 60% |
| Vikings | +250 | 28.6% |
Zimmer's 25-1 price - suggesting he will receive the award 3.8% of the time - for Coach of the Year barely moved despite summer fluctuation with the "Big Little Lies" around Rodgers. Starting from a position where Minnesota wins the division, that means Zimmer would be named COTY just 13% of the time the Vikings top the North - and that number is too low.
Fade: Brian Flores (+1500), Kevin Stefanski (+1200)
Brian Flores' best chance to take home the award was last season, with the Dolphins' big improvement in the win column. But the bar is higher now, and another leap would depend on improvement from Tua Tagovailoa. As for the favorites, I would never bet on last season's winner, Kevin Stefanski (+1200), since he'd have to take the Browns up a few notches to go back-to-back.
If you must bet on a favorite, look toward Brandon Staley (+1200), who's a significant upgrade over Anthony Lynn. The Chargers have the talent to do some serious damage, but they're in tough to win the division - the top-tier Chiefs are much less likely to implode than, say, the Packers.
Avoid: Vic Fangio (+2500), Sean McDermott (+1700)
The Broncos' Vic Fangio is the same price as Zimmer, but I would rather back his candidacy for chairperson of the Del Boca Vista Condo Board than for Coach of the Year.
Sean McDermott is a great coach, but the market believes the AFC East is the Bills' to lose. Buffalo would likely need a 15-win season at the very least for McDermott to get legitimate consideration.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.