Defensive Player of the Year odds, best bet: Can anyone stop Donald?
The Defensive Player of the Year market is like a horse race, creating a mental image of the likes of the Bosa brothers lining up next to the Watt brothers and the Packers' Smith "brothers." And on certain Sundays against overmatched offensive tackles, any number of these guys can fly down the stretch like a Triple Crown winner.
But this market is really like a horse race in that you approach handicapping it by looking for reasons to fade the favorite. The shorter the odds, the less likely I am to bet the cheap runner. Our task heading into 2021? Identify someone who can impress voters more than three-time winner Aaron Donald.
| Player | Age | DPOY Top 3 | All-Pro 2019/20 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Donald | 30 | 4 | Yes | +450 |
| Myles Garrett | 25 | 0 | Yes | +550 |
| TJ Watt | 26 | 2 | Yes | +800 |
| Chase Young | 22 | 0 | No | +1100 |
| Joey Bosa | 26 | 0 | Yes | +1200 |
| Nick Bosa | 23 | 0 | No | +1400 |
| Khalil Mack | 30 | 2 | Yes | +1400 |
| Derwin James | 25 | 0 | No | +2200 |
| Devin White | 23 | 0 | Yes | +2500 |
| JJ Watt | 32 | 3 | No | +2800 |
| Darius Leonard | 26 | 0 | Yes | +2800 |
| Jamal Adams | 25 | 0 | Yes | +2800 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 26 | 0 | Yes | +2800 |
| Von Miller | 32 | 2 | No | +3300 |
| Bobby Wagner | 31 | 0 | Yes | +3300 |
| Bradley Chubb | 25 | 0 | No | +3300 |
| Xavien Howard | 28 | 1 | Yes | +3300 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 28 | 0 | Yes | +4000 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 31 | 1 | Yes | +4000 |
| Chandler Jones | 31 | 2 | No | +4000 |
| Marcus Peters | 28 | 0 | Yes | +4000 |
(Only showing players with odds 40-1 or shorter)
This list of candidates is loaded, but when trying to figure out who can become the league's most dominant defender, it's worth considering the past. Historically, what does the Defensive Player of the Year look like?
| Year | Winner (position) | Age |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Bob Sanders (S) | 26 |
| 2008 | James Harrison (LB) | 30 |
| 2009 | Charles Woodson (CB) | 33 |
| 2010 | Troy Polamalu (S) | 29 |
| 2011 | Terrell Suggs (LB) | 29 |
| 2012 | JJ Watt (DL) | 23 |
| 2013 | Luke Kuechly (LB) | 22 |
| 2014 | JJ Watt (DL) | 25 |
| 2015 | JJ Watt (DL) | 26 |
| 2016 | Khalil Mack (LB) | 25 |
| 2017 | Aaron Donald (DL) | 26 |
| 2018 | Aaron Donald (DL) | 27 |
| 2019 | Stephon Gilmore (CB) | 29 |
| 2020 | Aaron Donald (DL) | 29 |
Since a 2007-10 streak where three defensive backs won, it's been mostly about the big boys at the line of scrimmage. Apparently, throwing quarterbacks around like a rag doll attracts some attention.
Even with Luke Kuechly dragging it down, the average age of a DPOY over the last 14 seasons is just over 27 years old. Meanwhile, as the lone DB to win since 2010, Stephon Gilmore was a lockdown defender in 2019 before we all really knew what lockdown meant.
There are zero cases of players emerging from nowhere to earn the award, and the winners always play for quality teams with quality defenses. Entering his age-30 season, there's no sign Donald can't handle his usual task of fighting off double and triple teams. However, he's raised the bar so high that in 2019 he had 12.5 sacks and barely finished in the top five of voting. We know what we're getting with Donald, so who can put up stats that surpass him?
TJ Watt (+800)
JJ's kid brother has stepped out of the shadow of the three-time DPOY. TJ led the league in sacks last season and topped all front-seven players in passes defensed. He fits the profile, too: He's almost 27, he's got two top-three DPOY finishes and a recent All-Pro season, and the Steelers are good but may need to rely heavily on their defense.
Xavien Howard (+3300)
Our formula tabs Howard as a prime candidate due to his age and resume, and he plays on a Dolphins team whose defense carried it just shy of the playoffs. At first glance, his position puts him at a disadvantage. However, like Gilmore in 2019, he might be the right orange to beat out Donald's apple. The player with the best chance to outshine Donald might be someone who plays a much different position, accumulating different stats and making a direct comparison more difficult for voters.
Tre'Davious White (+5000)
There's value further down the oddsboard as well. White just missed our cutoff, but he's another candidate to provide stats that contrast Donald's. If he can get a few key interceptions and provide classic shutdown corner play for the potentially dominant Bills, voters could give him the same consideration they did Gilmore two years ago.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.