Best bets to lead the NFL in passing yards: Back the big guns
I was reminded last week of my first (and only) paintball experience. After being told not to fire the gun before entering the "battle zone," I couldn't help myself and pulled the trigger. Safely, and off to the side, I shot a ball into the ground, as harmless as a Mitch Trubisky rollout. It didn't matter, as I was busted by management, and my punishment was the firing squad - I was forced to run across the field while my "friends" were encouraged to launch freely.
In the NFL Passing Yards Leader market, we want to back quarterbacks who also launch freely and are a little more accurate than an amateur paint sniper.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +350 |
| Dak Prescott | +600 |
| Tom Brady | +650 |
| Josh Allen | +850 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1200 |
| Matt Ryan | +1400 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1400 |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 |
| Russell Wilson | +2000 |
| Joe Burrow | +2500 |
| Jameis Winston | +2500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +2800 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +2800 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 |
| Kyler Murray | +4000 |
| Sam Darnold | +5000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +5000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +5000 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +5000 |
| Jared Goff | +5000 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | +5000 |
In order to find someone to bet, we must start by looking at first-half defensive metrics.
In order to put up an unusually high yards tally, you need plenty of attempts, and, in turn, urgency. This is created by a negative game script - as early as possible. Deshaun Watson led the NFL in passing yards last season, and his Texans allowed the fourth-most first-half points. Only the Jaguars, Lions, and Cowboys used more, but each was forced to use multiple quarterbacks in 2020.
If all things were considered equal, Patrick Mahomes would be an easy bet every year. He came close last season but was a little too good, as the Chiefs were able to rest him in the final week, which allowed Watson to leap ahead. If he can play all 17 this year, he'll be full value at the short price of +350.
Josh Allen (+850)
Allen would be an exception to the rule. He'll likely have a few fourth quarters off on a good Bills team, but the offense is quickly veering to a point where offensive coordinator Brian Daboll might never run the ball again. The volume could be so high early in games that Allen won't need the second-half urgency typically required to lead the NFL in passing.
Justin Herbert (+1400)
Some expect regression for Herbert, but don't bank on it. The Chargers now have a legitimate coaching staff, with Joe Lombardi taking over the play-calling, and he loves the deep ball. That plays into Herbert's strength. Lombardi also adopts a pass-heavy approach on first down, which the previous staff was allergic to.
Herbert's 289.1 yards per game last year also came without the easy yardage that Austin Ekeler historically provides in the short passing game. In theory, the Chargers should be in fewer trailing situations, but this team is still all too familiar with late-game urgency.
Joe Burrow (+2500)
Burrow played in 10 games last season. After his first NFL appearance, he averaged 316 yards against teams not named the Steelers or Ravens and had 203 yards in one half before his fateful injury against Washington. The bad news is Burrow has to play both the Steelers and Ravens twice this season, but he'll likely be trailing late and won't be taken out for poor play.
If he can stay healthy, any improvement against the AFC North's defensive Goliaths could push him to the 300 yards-per-game mark, especially with a terrific trio of wide receivers to throw to.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.