Bet these 4 NFL long shots to win Super Bowl LVI

It's hard to win it all in the NFL. It's even harder as a long shot. Since 1977 - the earliest available year of preseason data - only six teams have entered the season with longer than 30-1 title odds and ultimately hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at year's end. Only three have done so in the last 38 years.

When it happens, though, it pays off in a big way. The 2017 Eagles won the Super Bowl as 40-1 long shots; the 2001 Patriots were 60-1 entering the campaign; the 1999 Rams cashed as 150-1 afterthoughts. Any one of those bets hitting would justify chasing such a ticket each and every NFL season.

So, who could reward long-shot bettors in 2021? Here are four teams priced longer than 30-1 who could crash the party in February:

Washington Football Team (+3700)

How much faith do you have in Ryan Fitzpatrick? If you believe in his ability to stabilize an offense, then there's a lot to like about Washington, which is a competent quarterback away from unlocking a new level on offense.

Terry McLaurin has emerged as a star despite years of instability at quarterback, while fellow wideout Curtis Samuel has long been an analytics darling without the passer to support it. Antonio Gibson was a top-five running back in 2020, per PFF, while the offensive line graded out as a top-10 unit and returns four of five starters with solid depth, too.

This defense ranked in the top five in seemingly every meaningful stat in 2020 and could be even better this year behind an elite D-line, led by reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young. This all falls back to Fitzpatrick, who has shown enough magic to justify betting Washington at long odds.

Miami Dolphins (+3800)

The Dolphins are among my biggest buys this offseason in every futures market, and I'm bullish on their chances to develop into a Super Bowl contender after an impressive offseason addressed the team's key needs.

Brian Flores' group exceeded expectations with a 10-win season in 2020, led by a ferocious defense that ranked fifth in points allowed per drive and added two impact rookies in April's draft in Jaelen Phillips and Jevon Holland. On offense, Miami averaged 26.4 points in Tua Tagovailoa's seven full games as a starter - which would have ranked just outside of the top 10 across an entire season.

Now the Fins' second-year passer will have a full (and healthy) offseason under his belt as the team's starter, and he'll enjoy a much more dynamic offense with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle streaking down the field. If Tagovailoa flashes the promise he showed at Alabama, and this defense continues to pressure opposing QBs at an elite rate, then watch out.

Chicago Bears (+4500)

I've been all over the Bears since the day after Super Bowl LV when they were priced at 50-1 with an elite defense but had major questions at quarterback. They've since signed Andy Dalton to start the season and drafted Justin Fields as his eventual successor - maybe as soon as a few weeks into the year. But, their price has hardly moved.

Chicago has won at least eight games in each of Matt Nagy's three years despite lackluster QB play, thanks to a defense that ranked in the top 10 in DVOA in each of those three seasons. That should be the case again this campaign, as the Bears boast All-Pro talent at all three levels.

This is a Super Bowl roster with a long-shot price based purely on the quarterback. The sky is the limit if Fields gets his shot and plays like he did at Ohio State or Dalton returns to Pro Bowl form, which he nearly did in 2020.

Carolina Panthers (+8000)

Much like the Bears, the Panthers entered this offseason with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball but a glaring hole at quarterback. They've seemingly answered it by trading for Sam Darnold, who struggled in three years with the Jets but is still a former top-three pick with loads of arm talent.

He'll have plenty of opportunities to turn his career around in Joe Brady's air-it-out scheme, especially with three electric wideouts in D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall at his disposal. That's not to mention do-it-all star Christian McCaffrey, who is just two years removed from his historic 1,000-1,000 campaign before missing most of 2020 with injury.

The larger questions are on defense, though that side of the ball is stacked with former first-rounders at all three levels and will surprise under second-year coordinator Phil Snow, whose defense started six rookies for at least one game in 2020. There's risk here, but this roster is much better than its 80-1 price suggests if the pieces come together.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].