NFL Week 4 best bets: Wentz will struggle against blitz-happy Dolphins
We finally enjoyed a healthy slate of QB play but were saddled with a 1-2 record last week to bring our season-long total to 5-4. I guess a healthy Justin Fields isn't much of an upgrade over generic starters, huh?
I've learned my lesson about those pesky Bears and have three games in my sights ahead of an intriguing Week 4 slate:
Panthers @ Cowboys (-4.5, 52), 1 p.m. ET
The Panthers were my ride-or-die team coming into the season, as I felt they were undervalued in just about every market. Sure enough, I've ridden this young group to three straight wins against the spread, and I don't see any reason to back down here.
Carolina's defense ranks first in yards allowed (191 per game) and has surrendered a grand total of 30 points through three weeks. Yes, the competition has been mixed, but this talent-rich defense has shown an ability to harass opposing quarterbacks - leading the NFL in pressure rate (44.2%) and hurry rate (18.3%) under second-year coordinator Phil Snow.
The Panthers' offense takes a hit without Christian McCaffrey, but I trust Joe Brady to scheme up an offense similar to what Carolina ran last year in his absence, especially with extra time to prepare. Speaking of which: since 2015, teams coming off a Thursday game are 14-4-2 ATS against teams coming off a Monday night game, as the Cowboys are this week. This game probably shouldn't have been scheduled, but I'll gladly bet it, anyway.
Pick: Panthers +4.5
Colts @ Dolphins (-2, 42.5), 1 p.m.
The Dolphins have been mainstays in our weekly best bets, though QB health has been a factor working against us. This week, it's in our favor, as the Colts will likely trot out injured starter Carson Wentz following one of the worst games of his career.
The longtime Eagles starter threw for fewer than 200 passing yards despite slinging it 37 times - only the second time that's happened in his career. It was also just the second time in 71 career starts where he's finished a game with zero rushing attempts, which is a clear indication the oft-mobile quarterback simply isn't himself after spraining both of his ankles the week before.
Miami boasts the second-highest blitz rate (18.3%) through three weeks and has five more QB knockdowns (21) than the next-best club. This is a defense that will get after Wentz and force him to escape pressure behind the Colts' reeling O-line, which simply isn't a path to success for the recovering QB.
Pick: Dolphins -2
Ravens (-1, 44.5) @ Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
When this game first opened at Broncos -1.5, I had a feeling the perception of these two teams would nudge this line across zero and into Ravens' territory. Sure enough, bettors are buying Baltimore as short road chalk, and I'm happy to play contrarian in a game that never should have flipped sides.
Lamar Jackson's weakness in recent years has been rangy defenses that can chase him sideline-to-sideline and play him honest in the passing game. That's a manageable task for Denver, which has smothered opposing offenses to the tune of 8.7 points per game behind one of the best - and most versatile - secondaries in the league.
Both of these teams are banged up entering this game, but we've seen a depleted Broncos team bludgeon opponents thus far, while Baltimore needed a miracle to beat the lowly Lions a week ago. Teddy Bridgewater has been arguably the NFL's best passer against the blitz this year; he'll make enough plays against the blitz-happy Ravens to help his defense close this one out.
Pick: Broncos +1
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].