NFL Week 5 O/U best bets: Bet these unders in rare week for low totals
After a 7-4 start to the season, we slogged through an 0-3 week highlighted by a 1-point miss in the Colts-Dolphins game and an incredible under in Buffalo despite the Bills scoring 40 points on their own. Really, Texans?
Let's get back on track with an intriguing Week 5 slate that features two of the lowest totals in years:
Patriots (-9, 39.5) @ Texans, 1 p.m. ET
Imagine betting the over and watching one team put up 40 points ... and losing. Welcome to the Davis Mills experience. The Stanford product has been abhorrent through 10 quarters, completing 56.7% of his passes with two touchdowns, five interceptions, two fumbles, eight sacks, and a shockingly low 17.6 QBR.
More importantly, the Texans have combined for 16 points in his 2.5 games of action, including a goose egg last week against the Bills. The Patriots' defense ranks fifth in yards allowed (306.8) and sixth in points (17.5) after shutting down the Buccaneers a week ago, though their offense doesn't have the weaponry to threaten 40 points as Buffalo did a week ago.
If you're scared off by the low total, don't be. In fact, low totals have been a boon for under bettors in recent years. Since 2019, games with a total of 40 or less have gone 19-8-1 (70.4%) to the under, including 1-0 in the only such contest from last season. Neither offense should concern you in this one.
Pick: Under 39.5
Broncos @ Steelers (-1, 39.5), 1 p.m.
Two sub-40 totals in one week! It's the first time that's happened since the 2019 season, and if you followed our picks then (or now), you know we're going under on a game that can't be priced low enough.
Oddsmakers are essentially daring either side to score more than 20 points, something a Drew Lock-led team has done just twice in his last eight appearances. Even if Teddy Bridgewater starts for the Broncos - which seems unlikely at this point - he won't be able to practice until late in the week, which isn't ideal before facing a Steelers defense that ranks fifth in pressure rate (29.7%).
Conversely, this Pittsburgh offense is downright awful, ranking 28th in points per drive (1.5) and 30th in points per play (0.27). Ben Roethlisberger's days as a competent NFL quarterback are over, and he'll be hard-pressed to lead his team to more than a scoring drive or two against one of the most complete defenses in the league.
Pick: Under 39.5
Packers (-3, 50.5) @ Bengals, 1 p.m.
It's starting to look more and more like the Packers' Week 1 dud was simply a fluke, as they've now scored at least 27 points in three straight games and exceeded their team total in each of those contests.
Aaron Rodgers has been back to his MVP self in that stretch, tossing eight touchdowns to zero interceptions on a 67.5% completion rate. Perhaps more significant is the involvement of Green Bay's running backs, who've combined for 467 yards and five touchdowns in the last three weeks.
The Bengals' defense has impressed against shoddy competition but is yet to face a team like the Packers, though their offense has looked electric in Joe Burrow's second season thanks to a much-improved offensive line. He should have his way against a banged-up Green Bay secondary that's been inconsistent even at full strength.
Pick: Over 50.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].