NFL Week 5 best bets: Don't write off Bears as live road underdogs
We hit a snag in Week 4 with an 0-3 record after, yes, another mid-game QB injury tanked our chances in one of our three bets. We'll try to right the ship with this week's slate, headlined by a pair of juicy total plays:
Broncos (-1, 39.5) @ Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
Since 2019, games with a total of 40 or less have gone 19-8-1 (70.4%) to the under. This one profiles as another clear under spot with two shaky offenses facing strong defenses Sunday.
Start with the Broncos, who are still uncertain whether starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) will be ready this week. If he starts, he'll do so having seen limited practice reps until Friday. If he doesn't, Denver will be forced to turn to Drew Lock, whose teams have scored 20 or fewer points in six of his last eight starts.
Given how poorly Ben Roethlisberger is playing in his 18th season, the Steelers will be hard-pressed to match that. The 39-year-old has the third-lowest QBR (36.6) among qualified passers, and Pittsburgh's offense has averaged the fifth-lowest points per drive (1.5) as a result.
Pick: Under 39.5
Patriots (-8.5, 39.5) @ Texans, 1 p.m.
These low totals are so nice that we had to play them twice. How could you not, given how incompetent this Texans offense looks with Davis Mills at the helm?
The rookie posted one of the worst lines you'll ever see a week ago, completing 11 of 21 passes for 87 yards, four interceptions, and a ghastly 0.8 QBR - the worst by any passer in the last three seasons. Houston scored a combined 16 points in his 10 quarters of play and likely won't do much better against a Patriots defense that stifled the Buccaneers a week ago.
Mac Jones has been much better in his rookie season, but he led his team to just six touchdown drives across four weeks. New England simply doesn't have the weapons to post the gaudy scoring totals this game will need to hit the over - at least not with Mills' Texans on the other side.
Pick: Under 39.5
Bears @ Raiders (-5.5, 44.5), 4:05 p.m.
A week ago, I swore off betting the Bears until I saw something substantial from Justin Fields in a starting role. Then he lit up the Lions' defense in his second career start before oddsmakers priced Chicago as a sizable road underdog this week and ... well, here we are.
Yes, it was against a Detroit defense that has struggled mightily, but there were some real takeaways to glean from last week's win. It's no coincidence the rookie had his best game of the year in the first called by offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who employed more six- and seven-man protections to buy Fields time to show off his arm talent downfield.
The Bears also relied heavily on the run game, which is a successful formula against a Raiders defense allowing 132.3 yards per game on a whopping 4.9 yards per carry, fourth-worst in the NFL. Las Vegas' offense has talent but is saddled with the same protection issues as Chicago's but with a worse defense to support it. Don't buy into the mismatch that this line suggests.
Pick: Bears +5.5
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].