NFL Week 7 O/U best bets: Bengals, Ravens to maintain stellar defense
We slogged through a 1-2 week on our total plays in Week 6, hitting on the Bengals' defense but missing on the Vikings' and Raiders' offenses. Here's to a better run in an appealing Week 7 slate.
Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5, 46.5), 1 p.m.
We cashed on a Bengals under last week thanks to a strong defensive showing against the Lions, and we're going back to the well this week in a clash of top-10 scoring defenses.
After holding Detroit to 11 points in Week 6, Cincinnati's defense ranks fifth in DVOA, sixth in PFF grade, and third in opponent points per play (0.28). Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense held the high-flying Chargers to just six points a week ago and are surrendering just 13.8 points per game over the past four weeks.
Baltimore's defense should be able to bait young quarterback Joe Burrow into a couple of mistakes Sunday, while the Ravens' offense faces a stiff test against the Bengals' front. Keep an eye on linebacker Logan Wilson - if he can prevent Lamar Jackson from owning the middle of the field, it'll do wonders for slowing Baltimore's dynamic offense.
Pick: Under 46.5
Lions @ Rams (-16, 50.5), 4:05 p.m.
This total is driven almost entirely by the Rams' offense, which ranks fourth in points per play (0.48) and second in yards per play (6.5). Don't mistake that for high scoring totals - Los Angeles ranks 20th in plays per game (61.7), which is partly why they're yet to crack 40 points in a contest this season despite efficient offensive production.
Don't expect the Lions to carry this one over, either, as Jared Goff has led this offense to 17 or fewer points in each of the past five weeks. He'll struggle to get anything going against L.A.'s elite defense; if the Rams have a big lead early, it'll be tough for this game to top 50 points.
Pick: Under 50.5
Eagles @ Raiders (-3, 49), 4:05 p.m.
Well, so much for an offensive slump under a new play-caller. The Raiders looked as explosive as ever in their first game without Jon Gruden at the helm, scoring 34 points against the Broncos' talented defense behind a steady diet of shots downfield.
Six different Las Vegas players caught a pass of at least 25 yards, including an early 48-yard touchdown pass to Henry Ruggs. This offense should have no problem lighting up the Eagles, who have allowed at least 28 points in three of their last four games as injuries mount.
Philly's offense has been ineffective as of late but could see a resurgence against the Raiders' front, which is allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs (103.2 per game) and eighth-most to opposing QBs (23.3). That plays right into the strengths of Jalen Hurts and Co. in what profiles as a shootout.
Pick: Over 49
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].