NFL Week 9 teasers: Teasing to a T
Let's begin with a recap of what I said in last week's teaser basket:
Here's how I'll play it - bet CAR +8.5/IND +7.5 now. Wait. If the favorite flips in Indianapolis, I'll pair the Panthers with the Titans. I'm fine with having the focal liability on the Panthers at +8.5 against the Falcons, who will keep any team in the contest late. Should they cover that number, then we can perhaps catch a middle with the Titans and Colts in what should be a competitive game.
What else could you possibly want out of our weekly observation of the best teaser legs available? Indianapolis moved from underdog to favorite midweek, and when the Panthers won outright and the Titans and Colts went to overtime, we were cruising to a double-sided victory.
There are times when that -270 price becomes more valuable than just betting a moneyline or an alternative spread on its own. Let's use the Monday Night Football tilt between the Bears and Steelers as an example.
| SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| PIT -6.5 | -110 |
| PIT -6 | -125 |
| PIT -5.5 | -138 |
| PIT -5 | -145 |
| PIT -4.5 | -150 |
| PIT -4 | -163 |
| PIT -3.5 | -175 |
| PIT -3 | -210 |
| PIT -2.5 | -250 |
| PIT -2 | -260 |
| PIT -1.5 | -270 |
If you really like Pittsburgh to win, would you rather have Steelers -1.5 on the alternative line at -270 or Steelers -0.5 as part of a tease at a price of -270? The latter allows you to manipulate a second game six points to your advantage. I don't trust the Steelers as far as I can throw Ben Roethlisberger, so this leg isn't for me.
Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero because they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on: a tie. So, how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 9:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -8.5 | -2.5 |
| Dolphins | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Browns | +3 | +9 |
| Eagles | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| 49ers | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Packers | +1 | +7 |
| Rams | -8 | -2 |
| Steelers | -6.5 | -0.5 |
There are eight options here, but I like some more than others.
We'll need Dak Prescott to have a clean bill of health for us to back the Cowboys, even if Cooper Rush looked capable on Sunday night.
I'm steering clear of the Dolphins, as they're more likely to show up on the wrong side of the weekly round-robin underdog parlay.
My favorite method is to tease teams up to and through +7, which scored us a nice win last week. That's why the Eagles and 49ers are interesting to me here. The Packers are a no-brainer move from GB +1 to GB +7 at the Chiefs. The Browns are +3 (-120) at the time of writing, which makes them more viable than the Giants as +3 'dogs that are headed for +3.5.
Lastly, the Rams are much more interesting to me at -2 (-270) than to win by two scores given that we're not sure what to make of the Titans now.
While we don't have anything as creative as last week, there are at least a few legs to choose from on the board to create a juicy teaser in Week 9.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.