NFL upset of the week: Bears, Texans offer 2-for-1 intrigue
Are we having fun yet?
Some weeks, it may feel like we're trying to lose, but that's the thing about the NFL: The value is in the disbelief. If there was a ton of belief in the teams we bet each week, they would cease to be inherently valuable. Sometimes you line up a game perfectly and lose. Other times, things go off script and work out anyway.
For as much as we planned on Jameis Winston playing inspired football, not even the involvement of Trevor Siemian could prevent the Saints from beating the Buccaneers - and taking the upset of the week to 6-2 on the season and an outrageous +9.9 units.
As we arrive at the new midseason peak, 10 weeks remain to give some money back. Even if we go 0-10, this project will still break even on the season. But we've got a little gamble left in us.
Amid the chaos of who's in and who's out in Week 9, we're targeting not one but two upsets of the week: the Bears and the Texans. As with everything great in life, however, there's a catch.
The reason we can't pick just one underdog this week is that each team has some significant lineup changes on the horizon - and our picks depend on clean bills of health for a select few players.
The market
Houston opened at +7 but has since moved to +6.5; the 1-7 Dolphins can't be favored that heavily against anyone.
The Bears were lined as +6 underdogs on open Sunday, up from last week's lookahead line. Chicago's loss to the 49ers and the Steelers' road win against the Browns tweaked this up a half-point, but bettors are keeping it from touching a full seven points, which would be a dream for us.
The injury asterisks
Texans' offense vs. Dolphins
The Texans found some backers at +7, presumably on the assumption that Tyrod Taylor is finally returning. If so, I make the spread closer to Miami -4, so an official announcement will drop this further.
As important as the veteran quarterback is, Houston left tackle Laremy Tunsil is the more stabilizing player for the Texans' offense. It's no coincidence the unit's momentum against the Patriots - even with Davis Mills - disappeared when Tunsil exited the game due to injury. Since then, protection has been a massive issue.
Taylor's return will move this line, but Tunsil's involvement is more important to Houston's chances of winning.
Bears' defense vs. Steelers
The Bears hung in with San Francisco offensively, as Justin Fields looked the best he has in his limited NFL action so far. But Chicago's defense struggled mightily with Khalil Mack out and Eddie Jackson leaving early.
Those two - along with Akiem Hicks - are critical for the Bears to win Monday night. The problem is bettors won't get much clarity until Saturday.
Pittsburgh's offense is manageable, especially for a Chicago defense featuring sideline-to-sideline linebacker Roquan Smith. But it would be extremely helpful to have the combination of Hicks' run-stopping ability and Mack's pass-rushing prowess.
The other side of the ball
Texans' defense
There's no sugarcoating the Texans' defense: It's not good. What's more than a little shocking is that Miami's offense is operating at just 4.8 yards per play - slightly worse than Houston's 4.9-yard average.
These teams turn the ball over at the same rate, and both have turned their opponents over at a rate of 1.1 times per game. They're as identical as their 1-7 records.
Bears' offense
Chicago's offensive numbers are the worst in the league, but the key to the team's competitiveness going forward is Fields' development. His play has improved in the short term:
| DATE | OPPONENT | QBR | RUSHING |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/26 | @ CLE | 6.4 | 3 CAR. 12 YDS |
| 10/3 | vs DET | 70.2 | 3 CAR. 9 YDS |
| 10/10 | @ LV | 29.7 | 3 CAR. 4 YDS |
| 10/17 | vs GB | 41.1 | 6 CAR. 43 YDS |
| 10/24 | @ TB | 1.6 | 8 CAR. 38 YDS |
| 10/31 | vs SF | 63.4 | 10 CAR. 103 YDS |
While Fields' quarterback rating is all over the place, he's grown more comfortable using his legs over the last three games. The Steelers, meanwhile, haven't faced a quarterback capable of being dangerous on designed runs since Week 1. Fields can garner a few extra first downs in what should be a low-scoring game.
Keep an eye on the injury report, but we may have a pair of live 'dogs to back this week. Hopefully, at least one comes home to add to our profits.
Pick: Texans +230 and Bears +220
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.