10 takeaways from NFL Week 5
Sunday Rundown recaps the most important developments from the day and examines the significance of the action moving forward.
Josh Allen, Bills looking super
The Buffalo Bills went into Arrowhead Stadium and beat the Kansas City Chiefs at their own game.
Josh Allen upstaged Patrick Mahomes by throwing the ball all over the field, totaling 316 passing yards and three TDs in addition to rushing for 59 yards and another score. Allen also outran a blitzing safety to pick up a first down on third-and-9, though the play was wiped out by a holding penalty. Oh, and he hurdled a defender, too.
The Bills' defense, meanwhile, had another outstanding game, picking off Mahomes twice and forcing a pair of lost fumbles. Buffalo entered the game ranked first in defensive DVOA and first against the pass. It’s likely going to stay in those spots.
The Bills have now won four in a row by an average score of 39-10. They also play just one team with a winning record between now and Thanksgiving. And they just served notice that they might just be the best all-round team in the AFC, if not the entire NFL.
Staley keeps coaching to win
Just 21 games into his career, Justin Herbert is clearly one of the NFL's most exceptional quarterbacks. Herbert brought the Los Angeles Chargers back from a two-touchdown deficit, torching a terrific Cleveland Browns defense with five touchdown drives over six second-half possessions.
The Chargers won despite giving up more than 40 points and not forcing any turnovers, which hadn't happened before:
In NFL history, teams scoring 40 points while having zero turnovers were 442-0 before today.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) October 10, 2021
They're now 442-1 after the Browns had zero turnovers but lost 47-42 to the Chargers.
But head coach Brandon Staley once again did everything possible to maximize Los Angeles' chances of winning, being aggressive on fourth down and attempting a two-point conversion when down eight points.
Trailing 27-13 in the third quarter, Staley first opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 24. Staley did the same on fourth-and-7 from the Browns' 22-yard line later during the same drive, then went for two after the Chargers scored, and later attempted a fourth-and-8 from Cleveland's 24 following the Browns re-taking the lead.
That last decision was significant for the Chargers' win probability:
Brandon Staley is doing his thing today. Facing 4th & 8 from the CLE 24 and trailing 35-28 they went for it which increased their (pre-snap) win probability by 8 %. They converted and the drive resulted in a game tying touchdown. This is the way.#CLEvsLAC #Browns #BoltUp
— EdjSports (@edjsports) October 10, 2021
Staley was similarly aggressive during the Chargers' Week 3 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. His willingness to optimize win probability combined with Herbert's special gifts gives L.A. the potential to be a serious contender in the top-heavy AFC.
Packers-Bengals was dumb, yet fun
It wasn't just extra-point attempts. The Green Bay Packers eventually outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime to win their fourth straight game, but both teams provided some comic relief along the way by constantly missing field goals.
Between 2:12 of the fourth quarter and 4:14 of overtime - a span of eight minutes - there were six possessions. Five ended with missed field goals, including three from the Packers' Mason Crosby (who also whiffed on a PAT), and two from the Bengals' Evan McPherson.
In a season that's been noteworthy because coaches seem to understand the positive value of being aggressive, the Green Bay-Cincinnati shankfest revealed that being too conservative can also be risky.
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor chose to have McPherson try a 57-yarder on fourth-and-2 from the 39-yard line with 26 seconds left. After Joe Burrow threw an interception on the first play of OT, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur took the ball out of Aaron Rodgers' hands, calling for two Aaron Jones runs before sending Crosby out to try from 40 yards. Then on fourth-and-1 from the 32, Taylor asked McPherson to boot a 49-yarder.
Green Bay finally won when Crosby connected from 49 yards out. But in the future, maybe more coaches will try to advance the ball further or win the game with their offenses instead of overestimating a kicker's long-range ability.
What was the issue with all those extra-point attempts?
NFL kickers typically don't struggle to convert extra-point tries. But on Sunday, PATs proved to be a bit more of a chore, for some reason.
Kickers entered the day having missed just 19 of 324 extra-point attempts over 65 games this season (a 94.1% success rate). But then kickers missed an eye-popping 11 of 62 extra-point attempts during Sunday's 14 contests. Eight kickers shanked PATs, with the Houston Texans' Ka'imi Fairbairn, the New Orleans Saints' Cody Parkey, and the Chargers' Tristan Vizcaino each flubbing two.
There's not really much more to say about any of this except that it was weird.
It never ends with Tom Brady
In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 45-17 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins, Tom Brady completed 30 of 41 passes for 411 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His EPA/dropback was 0.70, which is ridiculous.
This was no dink-and-dunk show, either. Brady’s average depth of target was 10.6 yards, and his completion percentage over expected was 7.8%, according to Next Gen Stats. He also had a 13-yard scramble to pick up a first down. At 44, there still doesn’t seem to be anything he can’t do, whenever he has to do it.
Matt Ryan getting his groove back
The Atlanta Falcons' veteran QB began the campaign looking like he might have been washed. That impression has changed considerably over the last two weeks.
Defenses reduced Ryan to a check-down artist during his first three games. He had attempted just three deep shots of 20-plus air yards, according to PFF, and his average depth of target was a mere 4.9 yards, putting him dead last in both categories. Additionally, just 17 of Ryan's 117 pass attempts from Weeks 1 to 3 were in the intermediate range (10 to 19 air yards), ranking sixth-lowest in the NFL.
Ryan has played much more like his old self over his last two matchups while taking six downfield shots in Week 4 against Washington, with 31% of his 42 passes falling in the intermediate range.
Then he did this during Sunday's victory over the New York Jets:
The former MVP passer's performance has notably improved, too. After posting a sad-sack EPA/play of minus-0.084 between Weeks 1 to 3, according to Ben Baldwin's database, his EPA/play over the last two games has been 0.445 - the third-best in the league (not counting Sunday night's game).
The Falcons are going to take more knocks this season, but they're no doubt starting to feel a bit better about their 36-year-old QB, whose contract is basically unmovable until after the 2022 campaign.
Patriots save their season
The New England Patriots were already reeling at 1-3 in Year 2 after Tom Brady, even if they were getting some encouraging play from rookie quarterback Mac Jones. But then the Pats found themselves trailing the Texans by two touchdowns in the third quarter, with Davis Mills shredding their seemingly solid defense.
With a little help from a bizarre trick play on a punt that backfired, David Culley's strange decision to ask Fairbairn to attempt a 56-yard field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-4 from the 38 after wasting a timeout, and a roughing-the-passer penalty on a third-and-18 incompletion, the Pats scored 16 unanswered points over the last 23 minutes to avoid embarrassment.
This was a game the Patriots needed to win, and they did it with four of their offensive linemen out with injuries. With the smoking-hot Dallas Cowboys coming to Foxboro next Sunday, a loss would have meant Bill Belichick's team risked slipping to 1-5, even after an offseason spending spree.
Now the Patriots have earned the chance to even their record instead.
Poor Lions
The Detroit Lions have established a track record of futility that stretches back nearly 65 years. They somehow found a new way to lose Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings.
Trailing 16-9 with roughly two minutes to play, the Lions received the break they needed when linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin forced and recovered a fumble at Minnesota's 20-yard line. After D'Andre Swift scored a touchdown three plays later, head coach Dan Campbell chose to go for two with 37 seconds remaining - and it worked! Campbell's aggressiveness looked like it would pay off, and the Lions would get their first win.
But there was a problem. With that time remaining and the Vikings still sitting on two timeouts, Campbell risked provoking Minnesota to be aggressive, too.
Our model backed this up:
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 10, 2021
It's close, but they needed to think they had a 51.4% chance of converting to justify going for it. We have expected conversion rate at 48%.
WP PAT: 43%
WP Go for 2: 40%
That's exactly how things played out. It took Kirk Cousins just three plays to move the Vikings 46 yards, setting up Greg Joseph's walk-off field goal. Only two weeks ago, the Lions lost to the Baltimore Ravens by the same 19-17 score after Justin Tucker's 66-yard field goal.
Detroit is playing competitively under Campbell, and the coach did all he could to put the team in a position to win on Sunday. It just didn't happen. What will it take for the Lions to earn a victory? Biting opponents' kneecaps?
Sam Darnold might still be Sam Darnold
When the Carolina Panthers began the season 3-0, it was maybe, kinda, sorta possible to feel like they could actually fix Sam Darnold. Now it's becoming increasingly clear that Darnold's issues run much deeper than a desperate need to escape Adam Gase.
He averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt while throwing three interceptions during Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, finishing with an EPA/dropback of minus-0.41 and a completion percentage over expected of minus-4.7%. He's thrown five interceptions over his last two games. There are 11 more contests for the signal-caller to work things out, but he's looking a lot like the mistake-prone version of himself, the one the Jets replaced three years after drafting Darnold third overall.
Darnold is also a potential landmine for the Panthers' rebuild under head coach Matt Rhule. After picking up his fifth-year option shortly following their trade for him, the Panthers are stuck with his $18.8-million fully guaranteed salary for 2022 no matter how he performs.
Giants are badly hurting
The New York Giants were already pretty banged up on offense entering Sunday's key NFC East game in Dallas. They ended it with a blowout loss, and significantly more injuries.
Wideouts Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were out with hamstring injuries. Guards Nick Gates (leg) and Ben Bredeson (hand) were also unable to go, while tackle Andrew Thomas (foot) was active but didn't play.
Then the Giants lost quarterback Daniel Jones (concussion), running back Saquon Barkley (ankle), and wideout Kenny Golladay (knee). Yep, that pretty much accounts for their entire Week 1 starting offensive lineup. Right guard Will Hernandez, tackle Nate Solder (now playing on the left side), and tight end Kyle Rudolph are the only ones still healthy.
New York hosts the Los Angeles Rams in Week 6. A 1-5 start is a real possibility.
Dom Cosentino is a senior features writer at theScore.