Raiders-Chargers best bets: Expecting fireworks at SoFi
The Las Vegas Raiders will attempt to be one of just two teams to remain undefeated through four weeks when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night to close out Week 4.
Here's how we're betting Raiders-Chargers.
C Jackson Cowart: Waller over 67.5 receiving yards
The Raiders' passing offense has been the NFL's most prolific through three weeks, and Darren Waller is a key reason why. The 6-foot-6 tight end is averaging 74.5 receiving yards on 11 targets per game this year, and he's tallied 75-plus yards in six of his last eight games dating back to last season.
Travis Kelce gashed the Chargers' defense for 104 yards in Week 3, and the unit has been among the least effective against TEs this season. Las Vegas' game plan should feature Waller early and often on Monday.
Alex Moretto: Allen over 6.5 receptions (-130)
I want no part of the side here because the Raiders are due to regress and the Chargers are in for a letdown after winning at Arrowhead. I don't mind the over, but I'm dipping into the player prop market instead.
Mike Williams has snatched the headlines this season amid his hot start, but Keenan Allen is quietly putting together an excellent first three weeks. His route tree is so impressive, but the underneath work he excels at will be key here. The Raiders struggle to cover similar receivers, allowing nine catches for 105 yards to Diontae Johnson and 12 grabs for 58 yards to Jaylen Waddle. Meanwhile, Chase Claypool and DeVante Parker - who more closely resemble Williams - combined for seven receptions.
Allen will be deployed all over the field to keep the defense off-balance in a game that should feature a nice pace, as the Raiders and Chargers are first and seventh, respectively, in plays per game. He posted nine catches for 103 yards and a touchdown in Los Angeles last season, and with 33 targets already through three games, Allen's reception total of 6.5 is simply too conservative.
Matt Russell: Over 51.5
A Raiders moneyline ticket is already in our pocket, but the value has since been sucked out of the line. Instead, let's turn our attention to the total and try to get in on the prime-time overs trend.
Even in their wins, the Chargers left a ton of points on the board by taking foolish procedure penalties. There are plenty of scoring opportunities sitting there for Justin Herbert to capitalize on with very little extra effort. The Raiders' defense has improved, but it was at a rock-bottom level last season. A decent showing from the unit could still result in 30 points for the Chargers.
Meanwhile, for all its talent and the turnovers the Chargers' defense creates, it still gives up chunk yards, and the Raiders have been successful against Los Angeles recently. Las Vegas has scored 24, 26, 31, and 27 points over its last four meetings against the Chargers, and this is the best Raiders offense during the second Gruden era. Look for both teams to flirt with the 30s.