TNF player props: Mike White set for a reality check

Legendary band Led Zeppelin were originally called The New Yardbirds, but Robert Plant and Jimmy Page were forced to change the name because it was deemed too similar to the original British rock group's.

Zeppelin started their Hall of Fame run with three epic self-titled albums. "Good Times, Bad Times" aptly describes Thursday nights, though we hope, like last week, our trio of TNF bets feels more like the band's early works.

The new yards bird

Our own original yards bird cashed last week in heroic fashion as Robert Tonyan caught a long pass to go over his total, tearing his ACL in the process. We got a "Whole Lotta Love" for you, Big Bob!

This week, we're playing another folk hero, Mike White, who arrived on the scene in thrilling fashion last week. Unfortunately for those looking for a repeat performance, I don't see an encore.

A short week for a road team coming off a big home win is about as bad of a spot as you can find for the Jets, who aren't known for handling success well. It doesn't help that they're visiting a better team who's bitter over a loss and capable of long, time-consuming drives to keep opposing offenses off the field.

The Colts' pressure percentage and defensive net yards per pass attempt aren't great, but only three quarterbacks have surpassed 259 yards against them this season - Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson (in a wild fourth-quarter comeback), and Ryan Tannehill (needed overtime last week). As exciting as Sunday was for New York, White is more likely to be "Dazed And Confused" in his first start on the road in front of what should be just short of a rock concert-type of crowd.

Pick: Mike White under 259.5 passing yards

A TD that's definitely going to happen

Our first tongue-in-cheek pick among the anytime touchdown favorites - Randall Cobb - painted the end zone with "Physical Graffiti" more than once, but with a relatively low total in this one, there are only a few shorter-priced candidates available. That's OK because we don't mind getting a little looser with extra money in our pocket.

The Jets have trouble with running backs in the passing game, surrendering 79 receiving yards per contest to opposing backs, 9 yards more than the second-worst team. "When The Levee Breaks" for Jets tacklers, the yardage piles up.

Nyheim Hines had four receiving touchdowns last season but has yet to score through the air this year despite his snap count remaining around 30%. The Jets stop the run well, so Hines could see a slight uptick in usage on a short week, as the Colts can line him up against Jets linebackers who have struggled in coverage this year.

Pick: Nyheim Hines anytime touchdown (+240)

A TD that probably won't happen ... but maybe it does

Looking for a "Stairway To Heaven?" Our long-shot touchdown scorer could come from any of the Jets' wide receivers. Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis are the nominal starters and priced accordingly around +250, but after that, it's dealer's choice in three-receiver sets.

If Davis misses a second straight game with a hip injury, Cole and Mims become interesting, as their snaps increased in Week 8. With uncertainty there, why not look to the biggest payout on a player whose snaps also went up against the Bengals?

In the victory, Berrios hauled in a critical catch for a score, which may earn him more high-leverage opportunities. The shifty, sure-handed Berrios is a good target inside the 5, behind the line of scrimmage, and could even break a punt return for a score. We hope "The Song Remains The Same" for the 26-year-old on Thursday night.

Pick: Braxton Berrios anytime touchdown (+1100)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.