NFL Week 9 takeaways: What on earth was that?
After the wildest Sunday of the season, maybe we should just make everyone a 50 and call it a day.
The NFL's dream scenario came to life this week, as upsets of varying degrees ruled the day. While we're trained to not lose our minds and throw all these teams in a blender, if there ever was an actual "any given Sunday," Week 9 was it.
Since we were so close to hitting the mid-point of the season, I thought about two things last week:
- Are the Buffalo Bills the best team in the NFL, and should they be bumped above the Buccaneers, at least until Tampa Bay gets fully healthy?
- Should I drop the worst teams in the league below the "Mendoza Line" of 20/100? Are they that bad?
Welp! The Bills' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars headlined a truly bizarre day. What do we do with Buffalo, then? Back-to-back lackluster efforts from the Bills have to dip their weekly expectation, and their bottom range has to drop to at least nearly overlap with the best version of the Jaguars.
| TEAM | RATING | RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 78 | 65-85 |
| Bills | 74 | 50-80 |
| Ravens | 71 | 55-75 |
| Cardinals | 70 | 55-75 |
| Rams | 69 | 60-75 |
| Cowboys | 69 | 45-80 |
| Chargers | 68 | 50-80 |
| Packers | 66 | 60-75 |
| Browns | 63 | 55-75 |
| Chiefs | 60 | 45-80 |
| Patriots | 59 | 40-70 |
| Titans | 58 | 50-65 |
| Seahawks | 57 | 40-75 |
| Saints | 55 | 45-65 |
| 49ers | 54 | 50-65 |
| Bengals | 54 | 35-70 |
| Raiders | 53 | 35-55 |
| Vikings | 53 | 45-60 |
| Colts | 52 | 35-60 |
| Steelers | 50 | 40-60 |
| Broncos | 47 | 40-55 |
| Eagles | 45 | 30-60 |
| Washington | 44 | 40-55 |
| Bears | 42 | 35-55 |
| Panthers | 40 | 35-55 |
| Falcons | 39 | 25-50 |
| Giants | 37 | 30-50 |
| Dolphins | 34 | 30-55 |
| Jets | 31 | 20-40 |
| Jaguars | 30 | 25-40 |
| Lions | 28 | 20-40 |
| Texans | 20 | 15-35 |
Dropping in a win, rising in a loss
The Kansas City Chiefs were a healthy Aaron Rodgers away from getting smoked by the Green Bay Packers. With assistance from Mason Crosby, Jordan Love allowed the Chiefs to survive another horrendous performance at home. Two wins in seven days are great for the record, but we're trying to determine overall team quality going forward, so the Chiefs keep falling down the ratings. Meanwhile, the Packers continue to prove their range is super tight. We always thought that was the case, but it was nice of them to perform two experiments to confirm it, covering in Arizona and Kansas City under difficult circumstances.
The Miami Dolphins won their second game of the season, but they would have likely lost again versus literally any other team in the NFL. I'm ready to believe anything on the low side with the Texans, as Tyrod Taylor's return didn't do much to help all the problems in Houston.
Bird-brained, and digging a hole
The Arizona Cardinals had the most impressive showing of the week, trucking the San Francisco 49ers with their second-team offense. As a result, their average expectation goes up. On the other side, San Francisco might have suffered the most embarrassing loss in a week when the Bills fell to the Jaguars. The 49ers went from +2.5 to -5.5 (an unheard-of eight-point line move through several key numbers) yet were never in the game thanks to sloppy offense and some of the worst defense seen all season. What would it take for the 49ers to play to the top of their range? This was the best it was going to get, and the clock is ticking on Kyle Shanahan.
Why we don't freak out week-to-week
The Cincinnati Bengals may not be the next big AFC superpower, after all. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens went from looking disinterested and incapable in all three phases to imposing their will over the Minnesota Vikings in a game the former absolutely needed. Neither of those two will move in the ratings - nor will the Browns, as these numbers guided us toward a winner with Cleveland in Cincinnati.
The Dallas Cowboys don't move, either, as we'll chalk this week up to them playing to their low end a week after playing to the top of their range without their starting quarterback. Not overreacting last week allowed us to know that -10 was a bridge too far with the Denver Broncos in town. No one could see a dominant Broncos win coming, but when you're not ready to go, that will happen in the NFL. We'll bump up the Broncos for bringing their best to Jerry's World.
Risers and fallers
The Seattle Seahawks take a big jump without playing, as we look forward to Week 10 and Russell Wilson's return.
The New England Patriots move up a little with a defense-first victory in Carolina versus the Panthers.
The Tennessee Titans had a big victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, but they're the latest team we won't overreact to. We move them up only a little, as they won't always be able to count on the opposing quarterback wildly throwing from his end zone while being spun around.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.