NFL Week 9 best bets: Love will prevail vs. slumping Chiefs

We went 2-1 on our NFL best bets and realistically would have swept the board if not for a brutal beat courtesy of the Texans offense. So let's kick off Week 9 with a bet on the very team that betrayed us a week ago:

Texans @ Dolphins (-5.5, 46.5), 1 p.m.

It's not often that a side as bad as the Dolphins will lay this many points - and it's usually a bad sign when they do. Only four teams in the last 30 years have been at least a four-point favorite amid a losing streak of at least seven games. Those previous clubs went 0-4 ATS, and the last team in this spot (2013 Texans) suffered back-to-back outright losses as a massive favorite.

This time, Houston is on the other side of that coin, and it deserves a bit more respect in this matchup of 1-7 teams. The Texans' biggest issue has been on offense, which ranks dead last in DVOA and points per game (14.9), but a brutal six-week stretch from rookie passer Davis Mills muddies those stats. In six quarters under Tyrod Taylor - who will make his return this week - this unit scored 51 points while Taylor posted a stellar 80.4 QBR.

Taylor may not be at 100%, but he won't need to be against the league's fourth-worst scoring defense (29.1 PPG), which has allowed at least 23 points in each of the last seven weeks. Neither club deserves to be favored this much against just about anyone, so take the points in a contest that could go either way.

Pick: Texans +5.5

Bills (-14.5, 48.5) @ Jaguars, 1 p.m.

The Bills can seemingly do no wrong to bettors. Even after a slow start last week against Miami, Buffalo still erupted in the second half to push the 15-point closing line and cover the opening spread, marking the fifth time in the last six weeks that this group has won by at least 15 points.

There's no reason to expect regression here against the Jaguars, who were pummeled last week in a 31-7 loss to a Seahawks team playing behind backup quarterback Geno Smith. Jacksonville also enters Week 9 with concerns surrounding running back James Robinson (foot), who has been the squad's main source of offense this year but remains questionable to play this weekend.

However you slice it, this is a massive mismatch, and historically that's a good sign for the favorites. Teams favored by 14 points or more on the road are 8-1-1 ATS since 2005 and 11-3-2 ATS dating back to 1993. Expect those marks to continue on Sunday.

Pick: Bills -14.5

Packers @ Chiefs (-7.5, 48), 4:25 p.m.

Have we not yet learned our lesson with the Chiefs? Kansas City's been favored in every single game this campaign but is 2-6 ATS with four outright losses - which easily could have been six if not for late rallies against the Browns and Giants.

Something is clearly not working within this offense, which leads the NFL in turnovers (19) and has been the fifth-most volatile group, per Football Outsiders. Patrick Mahomes has posted three of the five worst passer ratings of his career within the past month and thrown an interception in seven straight contests - his previous career long was two games.

Yes, the Packers will have to start Jordan Love in place of Aaron Rodgers, but the second-year QB has the arm talent to take advantage of a Chiefs defense ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and 31st overall. Green Bay's surrounding cast is also better than some of the teams that have given Kansas City trouble in recent weeks, so there's value once again in fading the preseason favorites.

Pick: Packers +7.5

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].