NFL Week 10 teasers: The cornerstone game
It was the greatest teaser leg ever. Until it wasn't.
The 49ers opened as +2.5 underdogs last week and slowly began their journey to -5.5 favorites. For much of the early week, you could tease San Francisco up to over a touchdown. With the Cardinals' obvious injury issues, the 49ers (as underdogs) were a clear cornerstone for any 6-point teaser.
When they closed as near touchdown favorites, those who grabbed the +8.5/+8/+7.5/+7 had the deal of the century, effectively getting a 14-point teaser for a price of just -270. Then it went south. The 49ers no-showed their biggest game of the year and couldn't even get their early bettors home through the back door.
There are times when that -270 price becomes more valuable than just betting a moneyline or an alternative spread on its own. Beating a big market move is certainly one of those times. Getting that generous spread home as a winner is a more difficult task.
Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero because they're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on: a tie. So, how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg? Let's use the Thursday night game between the Ravens and Dolphins as an example.
| SPREAD | ODDS |
|---|---|
| BAL -7.5 | -110 |
| BAL -7 | -138 |
| BAL -6.5 | -145 |
| BAL -6 | -163 |
| BAL -5.5 | -175 |
| BAL -5 | -175 |
| BAL -4.5 | -188 |
| BAL -4 | -200 |
| BAL -3.5 | -205 |
| BAL -3 | -270 |
The alternative spread gives you the Ravens -3 at -270. Would you rather that, or the -1.5 that a teaser leg provides at the same price? What about -1.5 -270 versus the Ravens' moneyline of -380?
The answers are obvious, but we'll need some options to pair with BAL -1.5, which is why we turn to the teaser basket for the best options to capture as many key numbers as possible.
Teaser basket
Let's look at the mathematically optimal plays available for Week 10:
| TEAM | SPREAD | TEASER LEG |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Browns | +1 | +7 |
| Vikings | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Eagles | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Raiders | +2.5 | +8.5 |
Which one do you not like? By now, you probably know that teasing a team up from a short 'dog up over a touchdown is my favorite use of a teaser. The Browns have taken early money, but they can still be teased to +7. The Patriots' style doesn't lend itself to a blowout. Speaking of styles, all the Vikings do is play close games. The same can be said of the Broncos and Eagles. Finally, we've seen nothing from the Chiefs to convince us that getting 8.5 points with the Raiders at home on a Sunday night is a bad idea.
Skip betting the Ravens to cover a two-score spread on Thursday, but use them as this week's cornerstone game. Mix and match them with the other legs in the basket. How many combinations should you play? That's up to you and your risk tolerance in Week 10.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.